France > Portugal

[Compit]

France will advance to the final. This I know. However I am a poker player not a sports bettor.

Does anyone know where I can find the best line and deal for a first time bettor?

Thanks

[shemp]

It is unlikely there's a good line on a big favorite in a huge market. France wins this 2 out of 3, 3 out of 4? How confident are you? I make my bets at pinnacle and I'm dubious of line shopping for this event. Maybe a bookie in Lisbon will give you a good line...

[Mr.JR]

I found EVEN at Bodog.

[almostbusto]

[ QUOTE ]
I found EVEN at Bodog.

[/ QUOTE ]thats france to win not france to advance

[punter11235]

France : 1.54
Portugal : 2.82

Right now on Betfair which is 65% for France if you think they will win more often go for it /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[MaloMan]

I'm portuguese, and i think that Portugal will win, u should remeber that Portugal on Euro'04 was finalist and in last game with England the portuguese team played very bad because didn't has Deco and Costinha, and with this player Portugal will be a STRONGER TEAM! Good luck for yuor bets ... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[pureklas]

[ QUOTE ]
France : 1.54
Portugal : 2.82

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the odds to qualify. The match odds to win in 90 mins are much better on betfair.

[hotintheserhinos]

Portugal is going to advance. I'm betting ten units on it ($1000). My good friend is a linesman and although he's not doing this particular game, he lives and breathes soccer and has seen Portugal up-close. He gives me the Spanish equivalent of the lock of locks.

[Mr_J]

he lives and breathes soccer and has seen Portugal up-close

Being an expert on soccer doesn't make him a profitable bettor of soccer.

[hotintheserhinos]

[ QUOTE ]


Being an expert on soccer doesn't make him a profitable bettor of soccer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, and I guess being an expert on brain surgery and viewing multiple procedures from the operating roon doesn't make you a great brain surgeon, but it's a hell of a lot better than some guy who has just watched a few surgery shows on TV.

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm betting ten units on it ($1000).

[/ QUOTE ]

Ten units = ten rhinos?

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Being an expert on soccer doesn't make him a profitable bettor of soccer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, and I guess being an expert on brain surgery and viewing multiple procedures from the operating roon doesn't make you a great brain surgeon, but it's a hell of a lot better than some guy who has just watched a few surgery shows on TV.

[/ QUOTE ]


This is moronic analysis. Most prefessional sports writers when challeneged to produce "picks" each week produce around a 50-50 effort minus vig. Dr. Z writes about this in one of his columns.

Yeah, it might be better, but not really. Portugal is good, but they are solid under dogs to a classy French team.

[Mr_J]

Your example is terrible since brain surgery is brain surgery, while sportsbetting and sports require a different set of skills and knowledge. Show me an 'expert' on a sport who can beat the spread and I'll show you a needle in a haystack.

[pureklas]

I would not wager a $1000 dollars on portugal they are certainly no lock. France beat a fancied Spain side and Brazil. Whereas Portugal struggled to beat England. Im not saying they can't win just that they aren't a lock.

Agree with the comment that the linesman not necessarily being a good sports better. Has he given you tips before and were they successful?

[hotintheserhinos]

[ QUOTE ]
Your example is terrible since brain surgery is brain surgery, while sportsbetting and sports require a different set of skills and knowledge.

[/ QUOTE ]

What? What skills and knowledge are required for "sports"? He is a soccer expert, and more importantly, he is really really good at determining who is going to win at soccer.

And why do so many of you clowns think you can handicap soccer? Since when should anyone care about your opinions and recommendations? It's not like anyone here has a soccer YTD that means anything. You just like the world cup and watch most of the games on TV and suddenly you are a handicapper and people should listen to you? The best handicapper I know for soccer tells me Portugal will win. And it's weird that somehow you all know that he's just an expert and not a sportsbetter. How do you know that? When did you meet him? Actually, he is both an expert and a sportsbettor and a huge fan and all he does is stuff related to soccer. But feel free to continue on thinking that you know a lot about soccer and that because France beat Spain and Brazil, they will probably beat Portugal. Great handicapping. I wonder if the sportsbooks know that France beat Spain and Brazil.

And Mr J are you saying that good sportbettors at a certain sport are not experts at their respective sport? I would say they are. If you want to be good at handicapping a certain sport, I would say being an expert at it is a good idea.

[Mr_J]

You are missing my point.

What? What skills and knowledge are required for "sports"? He is a soccer expert, and more importantly, he is really really good at determining who is going to win at soccer.

Being a successful sportsbettor requires different skills than being an expert in the game of soccer. Yes great knowledge of the game might help a bettor, but just having knowledge of the game isn't enough to be a successful bettor.

It isn't enough to determine who is going to win. First of all, there are no certainties so all he can predict is who is more likely to win. That isn't enough. He's got to assign probabilities so he can measure them against the odds being offered. Hardly any experts in sports (not sportsbetting, the sports themselves) can do this which makes them poor bettors.

And why do so many of you clowns think you can handicap soccer?

I don't.

The best handicapper I know for soccer tells me Portugal will win.

A linesman doesn't make a handicapper. He may be one but this is very, very unlikely. Your situation is no different than if I bet on the tips of a commentary panel of experts.

And Mr J are you saying that good sportbettors at a certain sport are not experts at their respective sport?

No, some are very knowledgeable of the sport that they handicap. However knowledge of the sport isn't enough to make a successful bettor. If it was then the bookies wouldn't be in business.

I'm not saying your friend isn't any good, I'm saying that you can't assume that your friend is a profitable bettor just because he knows alot about the sport.

[hotintheserhinos]

First of all, it's "a lot." Two words. It means "one lot." Secondly, I think it's rediculous that you are trying to tell me about my friend. He is a linesman who is far and away the best soccer handicapper I know. Why are you so intent on telling me that experts don't necessarily make good handicappers? And when have I ever said that he is a good handicapper solely because he is a linesman. It's not like I was walking by an AYSO game and decided to ask some random linesman who he thought was going to win. So what's the point of arguing "A linesman doesn't make a handicapper." No one is saying it does. Your responses are so off the mark that it's kind of baffling.

And you make it seem like sports betting and being an expert on that sport are not that correlated. It takes years to become an expert on a sport, it takes about 10 minutes to learn what the lines mean. The line is like +120 and he thinks strongly that they are going to win. Thus making it a good bet. Stop acting like sports betting is some difficult science and that most sports experts would not be good sports bettors. I'm sure someone like John Kruk or Harold Reynolds would be a very good baseball bettor because they live and breathe baseball. Do you really think they wouldn't understand that -200 means that they have to win 2/3 to break even?

[2+2 wannabe]

[ QUOTE ]
Portugal is going to advance. I'm betting ten units on it ($1000). My good friend is a linesman and although he's not doing this particular game, he lives and breathes soccer and has seen Portugal up-close. He gives me the Spanish equivalent of the lock of locks.

[/ QUOTE ]

$5000 on Portugal! SHIP IT! I CAN'T LOSE!!!!

[beetman]

If you're going to correct someone's spelling of the word "a lot" you'd probably be best off not misspelling "ridiculous" 5 words later.

Knowing nothing about you other than that the posts in this thread, I'd gladly book your action.

[hotintheserhinos]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to correct someone's spelling of the word "a lot" you'd probably be best off not misspelling "ridiculous" 5 words later.

Knowing nothing about you other than that the posts in this thread, I'd gladly book your action.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was 12 words later you stupid jackass-moron. Learn how to count. Wow what a dumb idiot.

And if you want to book my action you can offer me a line.

[beetman]

"Rediculous" is the 5th word in the sentence following your ranting about "a lot." Try counting on your fingers next time before attempting to flame.

I would have offered you France +125 when I first posted, which was what Pinnacle's offering, but they're now offering +134, and it would be silly for me to take +134 from someone I don't even know when I can get +.5 -130 in several places.
Likewise it would be silly for you to take +125 from me when you can get +134 from Pinnacle. But if you'd like some France +125 and have a reference who'll vouch for you, I'll gladly take it.

As far as what I'm taking in the game, I have a bunch of different under bets which will give a result of about +7.5u with a 0-0 draw, +2.5u with either team winning 1-0, +1.35u with a 1-1 draw, -1.6u with either team winning 2-0, and -5u with any result involving 3 or more goals. Another snoozefest in regulation like today would be nice.

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think they wouldn't understand that -200 means that they have to win 2/3 to break even?

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt that Kruk would. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Thremp]

I will book you action right now. Portugal +200 ML. As much as you want. PM me and I'll tell you where to send me the cash.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
First of all, it's "a lot." Two words. It means "one lot." Secondly, I think it's rediculous...

[/ QUOTE ]

It's "ridiculous", you dumb [censored]. Now STFU.

[brendanb438]

Rhinos. Congrats your buddy and your Portugal pick came through for you!! Couldn't have happened to a more deserving troll.

Oh wait, Portugal lost.

Glad I bet against you and your buddy and took France to advance and the under.

Brendan

[hotintheserhinos]

Hey actually I won because I bet on France and just posted here so that if they lost at least I would have the consolation of winning on here. So thanks.

[brendanb438]

So your posts are worthless and you contribute nothing to these boards rhino? Can a mod get rid of this loser?


Brendan

[RikaKazak]

[ QUOTE ]
So your posts are worthless and you contribute nothing to these boards rhino? Can a mod get rid of this loser?


Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

He's just lying cause he's embarrassed he lost.

As for my pick, I didn't see value, and don't know enough, so I passed on this one /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[j.fishbones]

Value was on Portugal. I bet Italy and Port. and won a few bucks.

Italy has the better keeper and defense will win it over France. They have the extra motivation,playing for Pessotto.

But, it is not a great bet at minus 145.

[kazana]

I guess our friends favouring Portugal forgot one thing:
Portugal's diving skills outweigh their soccer playing abilities by far. So your linesman-handicapper-sportsbettingpro should've thought of how likely it was that the referee would fall for one of their plentiful dives...

I'm not a fan of french football, but I was delighted to see that it's not always the team with the better actors that goes through to the next round.