WTF! How can anyone be this unlucky?

[kiemo]

I have deposited for $1300 this year in casino bonuses.

I play one hand of $5 BJ at every place.

I have managed to make $171.

Today I tried Omni casino (100% up to 100 match - same as intercasino). I busted out before clearing even 1k of the WR, again flat betting $5. This was preceeded by busting out at Intercasino last month clearing only 1300 of the WR. Which was preceeded by somehow busting out of a $400 bankroll at Golden Palace, before coming anywhere near completing the WR.


I think mathmatically, just with the Cryptos, this is damn near impossible. So I have to start wondering, am I just a cursed BJ player, not bound by rules of EV?

[MadMat]

You are either very very very unlucky, or badly misunderstanding the BJ strategy cards!

Mat

[BigBiceps]

According to probability theory some people will just be that unlucky.

[pocketse7ens]

variance

[Ad Alta]

I have deposited for $1300 this year in casino bonuses.

This is the problem. Play more bonuses, your results will normalize. Also, you might be at EV for all I know, you didn't specify the WR for the bonuses.

As for Intercasino, Omni, and Golden Palace, oh well. They're monthlies. Try again next month. (GP might not be a monthly, but they have quasi-regular reloads.)

[Linksys]

yes definitely play more.

I am up +$1900 or so after depositing $2300 in the last month alone. You def need to increase your sample size- you have to get REALLY, REALLY unlucky to lose over the long run assuming that you are picking +EV bonuses.

And you still made a profit of $171. There are people who have deposited your sample size and lost 300 or 400 easily.

I know variance sucks bro- sometimes i just want to break my monitor.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I have deposited for $1300 this year in casino bonuses.

I play one hand of $5 BJ at every place.

I have managed to make $171.

Today I tried Omni casino (100% up to 100 match - same as intercasino). I busted out before clearing even 1k of the WR, again flat betting $5. This was preceeded by busting out at Intercasino last month clearing only 1300 of the WR. Which was preceeded by somehow busting out of a $400 bankroll at Golden Palace, before coming anywhere near completing the WR.


[/ QUOTE ]


I don't do casino bonuses but I do know a little bit about blackjack.
If I'm readthis correctly you busted through 2 of your $100 buy-in's and one $400 buy-in.


So you lost $600 in play while flat-betting $5.
That's only 120 bets which is not that impossible a downswing for blackjack.

Sounds like it's just lousy variance to me (although there always exists the possiblity that you also play terribly I suppose)

[Linksys]

[ QUOTE ]
although there always exists the possiblity that you also play terribly I suppose

[/ QUOTE ]

um not if he's following the charts which i'm sure he is. in that case maybe 0.5-1% of results can be attributed to poor play due to mistakes, misclicks, etc.

[SlightlyMad]

Look up Blackjack, Appendix 12 on WoO. (To be pedantic, the Crypto HA is higher than the one used for this chart, since you can't resplit up to 3 times.) To crack with 1000 WR at $5 bets is a 1.5% RoR event. Not entirely out of the ordinary. Unlucky.

To crap out with 80 betting units with 1600 hands to play (if I remember the WR=8000 correctly for GP) is about an 11% RoR. Busting an 11% RoR is unlucky.

When you receive an event that is in the 0.01% range on the RoR chart ... feel free to complain about how "fixed" BJ is at that site. And be prepared to back it up with documentation. Otherwise, it's just unlucky.

Chin up. Busting happens to the best of us. Variance is nasty, but when you bust at casinos with only initial signups, it doesn't hurt as bad when you realize you never have to finish the WR. And busting early might get you flagged as a compulsive gambler and put on the special offers list.

[Ad Alta]

LOL at even mentioning Crypto or Golden Palace in the same sentence as "fixed". Both are quite respectable sites (ok GP less so, but they pay out well and are a fine site as far as I'm concerned).

In addition, both have donated to my pocketbook quite generously in their lives. /images/graemlins/smile.gif