whore this, ubersucker

[ubercuber]

I have now done two casino's for 6k in wagering and netted -$25. I thought this was going to be a fun, nice change from my poker downswing. Does the freaking dealer EVER bust with 2-6 shhowing? Does DD with 11 EVER produce a non 2?!

Seriously though, is it a bad idea to multi hand? I tried the first one single, the second one I did some single, then 3 hand, then 5 hand.

Is there ever a time for insurance? Cant help but think with 5 hands at risk... never done it though.

[grac]

[ QUOTE ]
I have now done two casino's for 6k in wagering and netted -$25. I thought this was going to be a fun, nice change from my poker downswing. Does the freaking dealer EVER bust with 2-6 shhowing? Does DD with 11 EVER produce a non 2?!

Seriously though, is it a bad idea to multi hand? I tried the first one single, the second one I did some single, then 3 hand, then 5 hand.

Is there ever a time for insurance? Cant help but think with 5 hands at risk... never done it though.

[/ QUOTE ]
Insurance is the misclick of online blackjack.

[Linksys]

I think that mult-handing increases variance but not as much as increasing your bet amount- ie a single $5 hand is higher variance than 5 $1 dollar hands. Doesn't change your EV though- just your swings will be wicked if you bet $5 and up per hand, so if you're not strong psychologically(and I have to question this considering your OP), I recommend that you bet the minimum with single hands. Otherwise you're liable to tilt and increase your bet size in order to make up ground.

Someone else can chime in on variance on say playing 5 $3 hands at once compared to one $5 hand. Not sure which is higher variance or how to calculate it.

[Doxa]

According to wizardofodds.com standart deviation for 1 hand is
1.15514 and for 3 hands 2.63198.

Increasing the bet size lower EV because there is a risk of ruin involved.

[Linksys]

[ QUOTE ]


Increasing the bet size lower EV because there is a risk of ruin involved.

[/ QUOTE ]

Increasing the bet size doesn't lower the EV as far as I know. It just increases variance. If you have an $100 bonus on a $100 deposit and bet $200 your first hand, your EV is still the same as it would be if you were betting $1 per hand, as far as I know?

[sharp63]

[ QUOTE ]
Does DD with 11 EVER produce a non 2?!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I get an Ace all the time!

[Ken_AA]

[ QUOTE ]
I have now done two casino's for 6k in wagering

[/ QUOTE ]

Are these your first two casino's? what two did you do, In my mind the first two should add up to 3.2K.

Ken

[Linksys]

Casino on Net(4k WR) and Intercasino(2k WR) would be my guesses. You're right that he should have started with PL and SL.

[PSW]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Increasing the bet size lower EV because there is a risk of ruin involved.

[/ QUOTE ]

Increasing the bet size doesn't lower the EV as far as I know. It just increases variance. If you have an $100 bonus on a $100 deposit and bet $200 your first hand, your EV is still the same as it would be if you were betting $1 per hand, as far as I know?

[/ QUOTE ]

The reply here is wrong. Time for some research.

psw

[Ken_AA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Increasing the bet size lower EV because there is a risk of ruin involved.

[/ QUOTE ]

Increasing the bet size doesn't lower the EV as far as I know. It just increases variance. If you have an $100 bonus on a $100 deposit and bet $200 your first hand, your EV is still the same as it would be if you were betting $1 per hand, as far as I know?

[/ QUOTE ]

The reply here is wrong. Time for some research.

psw

[/ QUOTE ]

The EV in this case goes down because you can not split of double.

However if you bet 50 a hand, your EV will go up slightly in the long run, with larger bet sizes.

Ken

[Ad Alta]

Increasing the bet size, and increasing the risk of ruin INCREASES EV. The reason? You often bust out before the WR is completed, which means less wagering on a -EV game.

Example:
Say you have a 100+100 bonus, with a $1400 WR, which has to be played on a 3% house advantage game which either doubles you up on you lose, so it doubles you 48.5% of the time.

Bet small, with say 0% risk of ruin, your EV is $100 - $42 [loss due to the game] = $58 EV

Bet $200, $400, then $800, and you will cash out $1600:
0.485*0.485*0.485 = 11.4% of the time

1600 * 11.4% = $182.53. or $82.53 EV

Thus, in this case, you gain $24.53 EV by betting big. Note that the last $800 bet here didn't increase EV at all, since then we'd have busted with the WR completed. It was just for mathematical simplicity.

[kyleb]

[ QUOTE ]
Increasing the bet size, and increasing the risk of ruin INCREASES EV. The reason? You often bust out before the WR is completed, which means less wagering on a -EV game.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is not the specific reason that larger bet sizes are +EV. Gaining EV only when you bust out is a moot point and not a good reason to refute the arguments of larger bet sizes.

[WLVRYN]

We need to get Ed Miller's blackjack EV post from awhile back sticked here. It would save a lot of time arguing about this.

[kyleb]

[ QUOTE ]
We need to get Ed Miller's blackjack EV post from awhile back sticked here. It would save a lot of time arguing about this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really - Ed Miller's post contains tens of hundreds of people trying to algebraically prove him wrong, which is not possible.

2+2'ers by and large cannot understand mathematics/probability if it cannot be explained to them in a simply algebraic formula. Of course, the reason for larger bet sizes increasing your Effective EV (EEV) is best described using simple precalculus and Pascal's Triangle, but that's probably asking a bit too much from the average forum dude.

[Ad Alta]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Increasing the bet size, and increasing the risk of ruin INCREASES EV. The reason? You often bust out before the WR is completed, which means less wagering on a -EV game.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is not the specific reason that larger bet sizes are +EV. Gaining EV only when you bust out is a moot point and not a good reason to refute the arguments of larger bet sizes.

[/ QUOTE ]
You are wrong. What I said is precisely the reason betting big is +EV, given that you are playing a -EV game. The only reason in my example that your EV is higher is because you only play the wagering requirement ~23% of the time.

Gaining EV when you bust out is not a moot point. What exactly do you disagree with about my example? It was quite simple.

[kyleb]

Ed Miller agrees with me, as does anyone who has taken statistics and/or probability. Your EEV increases with bet size.

If you are disagreeing with this fact, you need to take a higher-level math course or do a bit of research on that.

As for gaining EV when you bust out, my point is this: Who gives a [censored].

[Ad Alta]

[ QUOTE ]
Ed Miller agrees with me, as does anyone who has taken statistics and/or probability. Your EEV increases with bet size.

If you are disagreeing with this fact, you need to take a higher-level math course or do a bit of research on that.

As for gaining EV when you bust out, my point is this: Who gives a [censored].

[/ QUOTE ]
Firstly, stop speaking down to me. I have taken upper-level math and stats classes. So stop pulling this garbage as if you're God's gift to Stats.

Second, did you even read my post? The whole conclusion was that EV increases with bet size.

Ed Miller agrees with you? Only if you agree with me:
It's just the option to go bust and never finish your WR that changes things. - Ed Miller

[kyleb]

I would stop speaking down to you if you weren't condescending in the first place.

The idea that EV increase when you bust out is completely meaningless. Do you see why?

The real reason that EV increase with bet size has to do with the concepts I have mentioned several times in the forum and in this very thread. By concluding that EV increase when bet size increase only when you bust out is an incorrect conclusion. You are working towards the wrong goal if that is the way you are trying to prove the idea of larger bet sizes being more beneficial.

That is all.

[Ad Alta]

[ QUOTE ]
I would stop speaking down to you if you weren't condescending in the first place.

The idea that EV increase when you bust out is completely meaningless. Do you see why?

The real reason that EV increase with bet size has to do with the concepts I have mentioned several times in the forum and in this very thread. By concluding that EV increase when bet size increase only when you bust out is an incorrect conclusion. You are working towards the wrong goal if that is the way you are trying to prove the idea of larger bet sizes being more beneficial.

That is all.

[/ QUOTE ]

In my original statement, I stated, and you quoted
"Increasing the bet size, and increasing the risk of ruin INCREASES EV. The reason? You often bust out before the WR is completed, which means less wagering on a -EV game."

The gain in EV, in the long-term, is due, as my quote above says to less wagering on a -EV game. Explain where I stated that EV increases with bet size only when you bust out.

I stated EV increases with bet sizes when there is a possibility to bust out. In the long run, your EV is exactly (bonus $) - (EV lost during gameplay).

So to raise EV, you bet in a way in which you will, on average, wager the least (while clearing the same amount of bonus).

Also, please tell me the real reasons EV increases if I am wrong. And please do not say "oh, it involves precalculus and pascal's triangle, which you wouldn't understand".

Thank you kindly.

[festeringZit]

Kyleb,

You are totally wrong.

The *only* reason EV increases with an increase
in bet size is the increase in busting out
before wagering requirements are bet, and hence
less wagering at negative EV games.

[db9db9db9]

Let's get specific. Take Intercasino's monthly. 2500 WR, Atlantic City BJ. What's the EV, single player, betting $1 a hand? $2 a hand? $5 a hand? $10 a hand?...

Everybody knows their statistics; let's see some numbers.

[Linksys]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's get specific. Take Intercasino's monthly. 2500 WR, Atlantic City BJ. What's the EV, single player, betting $1 a hand? $2 a hand? $5 a hand? $10 a hand?...

Everybody knows their statistics; let's see some numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes I'd be interested as well.

I always thought that you just calculate EV of a bonus using the equation of Bonus amount - (WR*HA), so from that formula the EV shouldn't change based on bet size. I am wrong I guess.

[136913691369]

With intercasino it does not matter how much you bet because the Wagering carries over to teh next month.

[Linksys]

[ QUOTE ]
With intercasino it does not matter how much you bet because the Wagering carries over to teh next month.

[/ QUOTE ]

what? if i'm working on the july monthly then i can finish wagering it in august and then start right in on the august one? i don't see why the bet size wouldn't matter though because you still have to meet the WR and if you bet more you can reach it faster. color me confused i guess.

[Thremp]

Maybe he was spouting some gibberish regarding hourly rate since playing $100 bucks a hand I play much much quicker than $1 a hand would let me. Regardless, the EV goes up by betting bigger because sometimes you do go busto.

[kyleb]

[ QUOTE ]
Kyleb,

You are totally wrong.

The *only* reason EV increases with an increase
in bet size is the increase in busting out
before wagering requirements are bet, and hence
less wagering at negative EV games.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

Again, refer to Pascal's Triangle and do a bit of legwork.

[db9db9db9]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Kyleb,

You are totally wrong.

The *only* reason EV increases with an increase
in bet size is the increase in busting out
before wagering requirements are bet, and hence
less wagering at negative EV games.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

Again, refer to Pascal's Triangle and do a bit of legwork.

[/ QUOTE ]

This looks more like hand-waving than mathematical rigor. "The proof is left to the reader." I don't think proving that bonus EV increases with bet size is a trivial problem. I'd like to see Ed Miller's work on this. Anybody have an approximate date on this infamous thread? And which forum was it in?

[kyleb]

It was in Internet Bonuses, but I can't remember the title.

Ed Miller did a good part of the legwork, but it's really a problem that cannot be understood unless you derive the solution yourself.

[FoldEqu1ty]

Jesus Christ, wake up guys.

Who gives a crap about marginal increases in EV?
Bigger Bet Sizes drastically increase your HOURLY RATE.

This is and always shall be the only thing you should care about!!!!!!!!

The end!!!!!!!!

[db9db9db9]

[ QUOTE ]
It was in Internet Bonuses, but I can't remember the title.

Ed Miller did a good part of the legwork, but it's really a problem that cannot be understood unless you derive the solution yourself.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahhh, just one of those thangs. You either get it or you don't. Did you "derive the solution" yourself before you saw Ed Miller's work?

QED

[db9db9db9]

[ QUOTE ]
It was in Internet Bonuses, but I can't remember the title.

Ed Miller did a good part of the legwork, but it's really a problem that cannot be understood unless you derive the solution yourself.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't see how "legwork" is involved. It seems to involve functions of random variables to me. This isn't a trivial problem. When I ask for rigor, I get nothing. I'm suspicious. It seems you can't even begin to give a vague outline as to why this is true.

But I guess if I was smart, if I was educated, I'd already know the answer.

[Ad Alta]

[ QUOTE ]
Bigger Bet Sizes drastically increase your HOURLY RATE.

This is and always shall be the only thing you should care about!!!!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]
Those with low bankrolls would be well advised to reduce risk of ruin at the cost of hourly rate. Hourly rate is only really important if there are other things you could be doing with your time worth more money (or more personal value).

[UATrewqaz]

Without any attempt to do any sort of actual mathematics or calculations I'm going to go out on a limb and say kyleb is 100% wrong due to the fact that he is one of the dumbest f*cks on the entire forum.

That is my only possible contribution to this thread.

Good day.

[136913691369]

[ QUOTE ]
Hourly rate is only really important if there are other things you could be doing with your time worth more money (or more personal value).



[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't basically everything of more personal value than sitting in front of your computer for 5 hours clearing a bonus. I'm pretty sure everyone here has better things to do than play BJ for 5 straight hours. The only way I would bet small is if I had the teeniest of bankrolls, then again getting a loan and playing with a bigger bankroll is probably smarter.

[Ad Alta]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't basically everything of more personal value than sitting in front of your computer for 5 hours clearing a bonus. I'm pretty sure everyone here has better things to do than play BJ for 5 straight hours. The only way I would bet small is if I had the teeniest of bankrolls, then again getting a loan and playing with a bigger bankroll is probably smarter.

[/ QUOTE ]
Somewhere out there, there has to be at least one person that likes gambling. I actually like video poker sometimes, for example.

Of course, I still use $5 coins and play it 4-line when possible, but that is beside the point.

Betting small sucks though, you're right about that. The smallest I bet is maybe $40 when clearing the Cherry bonus.

[136913691369]

[ QUOTE ]
Somewhere out there, there has to be at least one person that likes gambling. I actually like video poker sometimes, for example

[/ QUOTE ]

lol there are millions who love gambling including me, but bonus whoring isn't really gambling, especially betting $1 or $2 a hand following a chart. I can't imagine anyone getting enjoyment out of doing that.

[ubercuber]

This thread went wild! My first two casinos were Intercasino and Bet365 because I couldn't, and still can't get starluck or planetluck to install properly... "a required resource is missing, try downloading again". Intercasino I bet $2 hand cuz I a noob and couldn't find the $1 tables, bet 365 made me wager 4800 for the $200.00.

I had a little fun playing at first but it quickly became tiresome and I seriouly wondered how you guys are making $1500+ and still playing poker!? Bigger bets...hmmm. So, if this goes wrong, which it did for me at small bets, when can you walk away without screwing yourself and your fellow whores out of future bonuses? Bust your bonus and cashout? Bust you bonus and you deposit and try again another month? That could get pretty damn spendy!! Casinobonuswhores is pretty insistant on betting $1/hand but I don't think I can play that many hands!

I don't have a huge roll at all, I have about 4k for poker, sports, and casino... in case your willing to offer a plan!

[db9db9db9]

[ QUOTE ]
This thread went wild! My first two casinos were Intercasino and Bet365 because I couldn't, and still can't get starluck or planetluck to install properly... "a required resource is missing, try downloading again". Intercasino I bet $2 hand cuz I a noob and couldn't find the $1 tables, bet 365 made me wager 4800 for the $200.00.

I had a little fun playing at first but it quickly became tiresome and I seriouly wondered how you guys are making $1500+ and still playing poker!? Bigger bets...hmmm. So, if this goes wrong, which it did for me at small bets, when can you walk away without screwing yourself and your fellow whores out of future bonuses? Bust your bonus and cashout? Bust you bonus and you deposit and try again another month? That could get pretty damn spendy!! Casinobonuswhores is pretty insistant on betting $1/hand but I don't think I can play that many hands!

I don't have a huge roll at all, I have about 4k for poker, sports, and casino... in case your willing to offer a plan!

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is enough to discourage you, casino bonus chasing probably isn't for you. It's not for everyone. At it's best, it's tedious. You have to contact customer support when your bonus doesn't get credited, or you can't download the software, or you didn't get your cashout, etc., etc., etc.

It can be a pain in the ass, but it can also be a lot of free money. There's an opportunity cost to all of our activities. This is not Sugar Mountain. Persevere, if you want to make some [relatively] easy money. Or not.

[FoldEqu1ty]

[ QUOTE ]
I have about 4k for poker, sports, and casino... in case your willing to offer a plan!

[/ QUOTE ]

Rathole.

[Ortho]

[ QUOTE ]
Jesus Christ, wake up guys.

Who gives a crap about marginal increases in EV?
Bigger Bet Sizes drastically increase your HOURLY RATE.

This is and always shall be the only thing you should care about!!!!!!!!

The end!!!!!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, well, maybe the number of hours you can earn the hourly rate for could be a bit important, but whatever.

I personally like to deposit all my money into all the monthly casinos I do at exactly the same time and bet it all on one hand in each casino at exactly the same time. I have had to fill my house with computers and train my cats to click the mouse on command, but find that doing this gives me the highest possible hourly rate.

[Ken_AA]

[ QUOTE ]


So, if this goes wrong, which it did for me at small bets, when can you walk away without screwing yourself and your fellow whores out of future bonuses? Bust your bonus and cashout? Bust you bonus and you deposit and try again another month?

[/ QUOTE ]

When most people talk about busting, they mean they lost the bonus and their money. Even with large bets you are still plus EV on each casino you whore, so you should still cash out more then you bust.

Now it may look like this... bust 100 bust 100 bust 100 bust 100, cash out 1K, bust 100 ect...

Ken

[JackOfSpeed]

[ QUOTE ]
Without any attempt to do any sort of actual mathematics or calculations I'm going to go out on a limb and say kyleb is 100% wrong due to the fact that he is one of the dumbest f*cks on the entire forum.

That is my only possible contribution to this thread.

Good day.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Linksys]

Just busted Omni's 100% signup bonus to 100 with 2500 WR. Had completed 1600 of the 2500 with $130 left. [censored]. Made $10 bets. Anyone wanna help me calculate RoR for that? House edge is 0.49% I believe.

[Linksys]

[ QUOTE ]
igger bets...hmmm. So, if this goes wrong, which it did for me at small bets, when can you walk away without screwing yourself and your fellow whores out of future bonuses? Bust your bonus and cashout? Bust you bonus and you deposit and try again another month? That could get pretty damn spendy!! Casinobonuswhores is pretty insistant on betting $1/hand but I don't think I can play that many hands!

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are making the minimum bet or close to it, you shouldn't be busting more than 4 or 5% of the time, max.

[Ortho]

[ QUOTE ]
Just busted Omni's 100% signup bonus to 100 with 2500 WR. Had completed 1600 of the 2500 with $130 left. [censored]. Made $10 bets. Anyone wanna help me calculate RoR for that? House edge is 0.49% I believe.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm having trouble understanding. You were flat-betting $10 and you lost $200 in 1600 WR or you lost the $100 bonus in 1600 WR?

Anyway, if you lost $200 (20 units) in 1600 WR (160 bets), a rough interpolation seems to suggest that that will happen 7.5ish% of the time you play. If you lost $100 (10 units), your result is extremely common.

Eyeballing the wizard's chart is plenty accurate enough, imo. (http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix4.html)

[Ad Alta]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm having trouble understanding. You were flat-betting $10 and you lost $200 in 1600 WR or you lost the $100 bonus in 1600 WR?

Anyway, if you lost $200 (20 units) in 1600 WR (160 bets), a rough interpolation seems to suggest that that will happen 7.5ish% of the time you play. If you lost $100 (10 units), your result is extremely common.

Eyeballing the wizard's chart is plenty accurate enough, imo. (http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix4.html)

[/ QUOTE ]
With a standard deviation of 1.14, and being $192 or 19.2 bets below EV, through 160 bets, you are only 1.33 sigma off the norm.

Which is to say, yeah, it's quite common.

[Linksys]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just busted Omni's 100% signup bonus to 100 with 2500 WR. Had completed 1600 of the 2500 with $130 left. [censored]. Made $10 bets. Anyone wanna help me calculate RoR for that? House edge is 0.49% I believe.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm having trouble understanding. You were flat-betting $10 and you lost $200 in 1600 WR or you lost the $100 bonus in 1600 WR?

Anyway, if you lost $200 (20 units) in 1600 WR (160 bets), a rough interpolation seems to suggest that that will happen 7.5ish% of the time you play. If you lost $100 (10 units), your result is extremely common.

Eyeballing the wizard's chart is plenty accurate enough, imo. (http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix4.html)

[/ QUOTE ]

Ortho, I was flat betting $10 and lost all $200, the $100 deposit plus the $100 bonus, after I had wagered 2010 of the 2500. Sorry for the confusion. I was just stating that at the 1600 WR point, I had 130 left, and then proceeded to lose the remaining 130 over the next 510 in wagers. This should affect your calculation because I busted at 2010 instead of 1600, right?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm just as likely to get to $400 as I am to bust, right? That is, I have the same chance of going +200 to 400 as I do of going -200 to 0. Right? Just wanted to confirm that I'm not being an idiot betting $10 at a time.

[Ortho]

Oh, I see what you are saying. You lost 13 units in 51 wagers. The wizard's chart doesn't handle numbers that low, so I wouldn't feel comfortable interpolating, so I'll have a go at the math. Someone will correct me if I'm wrong.

StdDev=1.14, HA=.49%, 12.75 below EV, 51 trials = 1.56 sigma?

If that's right (I'm not that confident), it's still not particularly uncommon. You need to get to at least 2 sigma to start complaining, and even then you should expect to hit that about 1 out of every 20 sessions.

[Linksys]

No that's not what I'm saying. Sorry I know I'm being confusing.

I don't care about that tiny sample size. I'm wondering what the odds are, simply, of busting the casino before I clear 2050, and before I clear 2500, assuming I am making $10 bets and start with 200. Sorry for the confusion.

[Ortho]

I don't know how to calculate that exact number, but someone else here does. As a ball-park guess, I estimate that you will bust in 2050 of wagering approximately 12% of the time, and that you will bust your 20 units in 2500 of wagering about 15% of the time if that helps.

Hopefully someone will show up and give you the exact #s.

[Ad Alta]

You're just as likely to get to 390 as to bust, say, since you give up a bit of advantage to the house.

Betting $10 is fine strategy. Your risk of ruin is [to me] acceptably small, and you aren't going to waste too much time wagering. Then again, I'd say the same ting if you bet $50/hand, which is likely what I'd bet.

For risk of ruin, check out http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix12.html. your case is 250 hands, and you began with 20 bets, so your risk of ruin should be between 20 and 30%, about 27%.

[kiemo]

[ QUOTE ]
No that's not what I'm saying. Sorry I know I'm being confusing.

I don't care about that tiny sample size. I'm wondering what the odds are, simply, of busting the casino before I clear 2050, and before I clear 2500, assuming I am making $10 bets and start with 200. Sorry for the confusion.

[/ QUOTE ]

When you figure out your number, figure out mine.

I busted at Omni flat betting $5 and only cleared $900 of the WR.

Bet my number is WAY more impossible /images/graemlins/smirk.gif