SSHE: evaluation of flop (examples for flush draws)

[Thrakkar]

Hi all,

there are 3 examples regarding flush draws in SSHE that I would approach differently. I welcome any comments on my reasoning!

1. example (page 134):
hand: 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif flop: A /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
SSHE: strong hand
me: marginal hand
my reasoning: I start with 9 outs for the flush.
-1 out for A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif since that puts a pair on the board (if it falls) or might make someone else a higher flush (if I don't see it).
-1 out for the other 4 cards that might give someone else a higher flush (K, J, 9, 8).
0 outs for the backdoor straight draw (a single J gives someone else a higher straight, and someone with K J already has a higher straight).
0 outs for top pair (7 6 is too small).
= 7 outs worth (I would rank that "marginal").

2. example (page 135):
hand: T /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif flop: J /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif
SSHE: strong hand
me: marginal hand
my reasoning: I start with 9 outs for the flush.
-0.75 outs for the 3 higher flush possibilities (A, K, Q)
-1 out for the pair on board (possible full house/quads)
+1 out for the backdoor straight draw (1,5 outs * 3/4 (3 of 4 suits not yet accounted for))
= 8 outs worth (I would rank that "marginal").

3. example (page 136):
hand: 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif flop: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
SSHE: poor hand
me: marginal hand
my reasoning: I start with 9 outs for the flush.
-1 out because the board is all one suit
-0.75 outs for the 3 higher flush possibilities (K, Q, T)
+0.5 outs for the 2 cards giving me a set
= 7.5 outs worth (I would rank that "marginal").

Thanks for your comments!
Thrakkar

[Niediam]

Not trying to be rude here...

Why do you think anybody here cares that you consider an 8 out draw to be marginal when the rest of the poker world considers it to be a good draw?

[Thrakkar]

Don't worry, I don't regard your answer as rude!

Just before this post I posted the question if there is "table" that connects the amount of outs with the ranking categories that are used (in SSHE and obviously in the rest of the poker world /images/graemlins/smile.gif).

Unfortunately there is no such table in SSHE!

But I learn from your answer that 8 outs is a good (= "strong" in SSHE???) draw.

So that was valuable for me and not insulting.

Thanks! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Niediam]

It depends completely on the size of the pot and how many bets you need to put in to continue. A backdoor flush draw is a strong draw if the pot is 100 bets and its 1 bet to continue (this could actually occur if the casino was running some sort of promotion). Draws with 8+ outs are usually considered to be strong because you will almost always be getting good odds to hit your draw on the flop and turn.

[Twitch1977]

[ QUOTE ]
-1 out for the other 4 cards that might give someone else a higher flush (K, J, 9, 8).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this at all, if the K,J,9 or 8 of diamonds falls it decreases the chance of someone having a higher flush than you, not increases it.

But irregardless of that fact, if I have 7 or more outs to a hand as strong as a flush (with two flush cards in your hand) that's going to be a 'strong' draw in my books.

T

[Lanzalot]

Putting aside the question of whether or not, per your characterization, a 7 out draw is "marginal," I think your example 1 analysis misses some important points. The 76d draw is strong because you will get so much action from players with weak made hands, particularly at the lower limits. SS players will be playing Q8o, A3o and J7s on this kind of board all the way to the river. At least at the 2/4 B&M I usually play in they will. You will fail to have the winning hand most of the time of course, but remember, it is your objective to win the most money you can at poker, not the most pots.

Secondly, your subtraction of one full out for the Ad putting a pair on board smells of weak-tight play to me. You'll know to apply the breaks if you get alot of action from someone who raised before the flop. Such a player might have flopped a set of Qs or Ts (even Aces, however unlikely). If there was no raise before the flop, you are the overwhelming favorite to have the best hand with your flush. That's just simple hand reading.

Thirdly, don't discount catching running trips or a running two pair with this hand. Neither the 7 or the 6 would make possible a better made hand like a straight. Running spades would make a backdoor spade flush possible, but that is unlikely. IOWs, this draw is FAR from marginal and should be played as such.

[NickMPK]

Another big thing I think you are missing is that you seem to count the higher flush possibilities equally whether there are three cards to the suit on the board (as in ex. 1 & 2), and when there are four (as in ex. 3).

You middle flush is MUCH more likely to be beaten by a higher flush if your opponent only has to have ONE of the suit in his hand. That is, is is much more likely that an opponent holds Kd combined with any other card than specifically KdXd. That is generally why the draws in ex. 1 and 2 are better than the draws in ex. 3.

[Steve00007]

[ QUOTE ]



You middle flush is MUCH more likely to be beaten by a higher flush if your opponent only has to have ONE of the suit in his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's even more true if you're playing against loose opponents, which are the type of opponents that SSHE often assumes one is playing against.

[Thrakkar]

I thank all of you for your comments!

Please let me explain how I arrived at my "strange" evaluations:
1. I was trying to find a systematic approach (an algorithm or set of rules) that adds up to a final number that represents the strength of the hand ("outs").

2. In a second step this number would have to be associated with the hand categories, giving me an indication how the hand might be played best.

So I took all the examples (including the quizzes) in SSHE and with the rules below (plus a few minor corrections regarding an additional (backdoor-)straight draw) the numbers came out in a way that seemed to match the strength that was given to the hands in the book.

These are the "rules" for a FLUSH draw:
> start with +9 (9 outs for nut flush draw)
> -2.5 if the flop is all one suit
> -1 if the flop has a pair
> -0.25 for every card NOT SEEN that gives an opponent a higher flush if he has this card and a second of the flush suit (i.e. I hold QJ and flop is 975 then there are 2 higher flushes possible: A-high & K-high => -0.5)
> -0.25 if I don't hold the card WITH the flush suit that pairs the card on the board that is NOT in the flush suit (i.e. flop 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif if I don't hold the 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif then this card is not counted as a full out (only 1-0.25=0.75 outs) because it puts a pair on the board).
> add 1 out for every card NOT YET accounted for that gives me trips (0.75 if these trips are not the nuts)
> add 0.5 out for every card NOT YET accounted for that gives me two pairs (0.75 if one of my pairs is an overpair)
> add outs for every card NOT YET accounted for that gives
me top pair (0.75 for each ace, 0.5 for each K/Q, 0.25 for J/T)
> add outs for (backdoor) straight draws if applicable

Then resulting number would describe the hand category:
14+ monster
11-13 very strong
8-10 strong
6-7 marginal (I now moved 8 outs to "strong")
3-5 poor
-2 junk

Well, that was my attempt to distill clear "rules" out of the book.

From what you wrote I understand that you not only look at the cards but also think about the most likely reactions of the opponents (with regard of the limit you are playing that hand). That's fine. But for me as a beginner a phrase like "a pair on board devalues your hand" is not enough.

A) Does it mean: it devalues your hand by 1 out (or whatever number)?
B) Does it mean: it is potentially dangerous, so watch your opponent's reactions carefully. Maybe someone has a full house. Try to remember how they acted pre-flop to have an indication if one is likely to have the full house made.

If I understand you correctly it's rather like B), isn't it? Doesn't make it easier /images/graemlins/wink.gif

OK, now that you know what I was thinking I am very much interested to know what you would recommend how to learn to evaluate my hands. How did you learn it?

Looking forward to your comments!
Thrakkar

[Niediam]

Which pair is on the board significantly matters. I wouldn't worry too much about a full house on a 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif board. However, I might fold a flush draw on a J /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gifT /images/graemlins/spade.gif board if there was a lot of action.