Using Sagarin for my NCAABB picks

[Action Scott]

I have been clearing a deposit bonus on VIP using the NFL for about the 2nd 1/2 of the season. I have finished that now, but also got a referral bonus from one of my friends, which I just now found out that I have a 3x wr on that as well. Since NFL is just about done, I'm going to start picking CBB which I admit, don't know a whole lot about (mainly watch the tourney). So I figured I would use Sagarins' ratings to pick games for me, and post my picks and results here for all to enjoy /images/graemlins/grin.gif. I will be using the formula of rating - rating (+4pts to home team) and try to find 2-4 point differences (or better if available). I will then go back and make sure there are no key injuries/circumstances that sagarin can't take into consideration. This will be a very small sample size, but let's see how Sagarin does. Feel free to post your picks here as well, wish me luck. My picks in a bit....

[jedi]

Here's my first try, just looking at the numbers. I know nothing about these teams.

1/18

SMU 70.03
East Carolina 66.94

I'm taking SMU +3 (-104). Even with home court advantage should take this closer to EVEN.

Clemson 83.36
Miami, FL 79.91

I'm taking Clemson +4 (-105). Same rationale as before.

1/2 unit each

[Action Scott]

Ok, my first round of picks (all bets are 1 unit unless otherwise stated). Hope my math is good.

My pick w/ VIP line (Sagarin estimate)
Duke -11.5 (-16) vs. NC State
Miami OH -6.5 (-9.5) vs. Toledo
Wis Milw -5 (-8) vs. Detroit
Miss St. +5.5 (+3.5) vs. LSU

BTW, i approximated sagarin's #'s a little to make it closer to an even point or 1/2 point. They shouldn't be off by more than .2 in any case.

[Action Scott]

Thanks for your picks Jedi, i'm hoping for 60% hit rate, but anything above 50% is better than I could probably pick on my own.

[NoChance]

I would be very careful with doing something like this. I used to do this back in college because I thought it only made sense but it ended up being a losing system. The lines are usually off for a reason whether published or not. Going against these would have been better for me.

Don't get me wrong. I wish you guys the best but just be careful and maybe only track it for a while or at least only bet very small.

[niss]

I also think you will find that when Sagarin's "lines" are off by a few points, it is often because his numbers indicate that the books' spread favors a higher-ranked road team, which I think is the case in the posts above. That is, he ranks the road team higher than the home team, and according to his numbers that road team should either be laying more or getting fewer. My experience with Sagarin has been that betting on his numbers in this circumstance is not a winning proposition.

[Action Scott]

I will be careful. As I said, I'm only betting these to finish some WR on a bonus. My single unit bet is very small, so I'm not putting myself in the poor house or anything. Also, Niss, you seem to be right, 2 of my picks are a road fave that doesn't appear to be laying enough points, we'll see what happens.

[Action Scott]

Question regarding another game i was thinking about. Currently, Colorado St. @ UNLV -5, according to sagarin, Colo St. should be GIVING a point (-1), not getting 5. My question is, is UNLV one of those teams that has a larger than normal home court advantage?, do they play like a completely different team @ home? Thanks.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's my first try, just looking at the numbers. I know nothing about these teams.

1/18

SMU 70.03
East Carolina 66.94

I'm taking SMU +3 (-104). Even with home court advantage should take this closer to EVEN.

Clemson 83.36
Miami, FL 79.91

I'm taking Clemson +4 (-105). Same rationale as before.
1/2 unit each

[/ QUOTE ]

The Miami number is useless since their PG didn't play the first 10-12 games or so with a broken ankle. Since his return they crushed Maryland at home and stomped Heels at UNC by double-digits.

Naj /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Action Scott]

I added:

Penn St. -6 v. Purdue (Sagarin -7.5)I like this because Purdue is a terrible road team.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Here's my first try, just looking at the numbers. I know nothing about these teams.

1/18

SMU 70.03
East Carolina 66.94

I'm taking SMU +3 (-104). Even with home court advantage should take this closer to EVEN.

Clemson 83.36
Miami, FL 79.91

I'm taking Clemson +4 (-105). Same rationale as before.
1/2 unit each

[/ QUOTE ]

The Miami number is useless since their PG didn't play the first 10-12 games or so with a broken ankle. Since his return they crushed Maryland at home and stomped Heels at UNC by double-digits.

Naj /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Miami won 100-something to like 35.

Naj

[Action Scott]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, my first round of picks (all bets are 1 unit unless otherwise stated). Hope my math is good.

My pick w/ VIP line (Sagarin estimate)
Duke -11.5 (-16) vs. NC State WON
Miami OH -6.5 (-9.5) vs. Toledo WON
Wis Milw -5 (-8) vs. Detroit LOST
Miss St. +5.5 (+3.5) vs. LSU LOST
Penn St. -6 (-7.5) vs. Purdue WON
BTW, i approximated sagarin's #'s a little to make it closer to an even point or 1/2 point. They shouldn't be off by more than .2 in any case.

[/ QUOTE ]

3-2, not a bad start. My late Penn St. pick helped a bit. We'll see what tomorrow holds.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Here's my first try, just looking at the numbers. I know nothing about these teams.

1/18

SMU 70.03
East Carolina 66.94

I'm taking SMU +3 (-104). Even with home court advantage should take this closer to EVEN.

Clemson 83.36
Miami, FL 79.91

I'm taking Clemson +4 (-105). Same rationale as before.
1/2 unit each

[/ QUOTE ]

The Miami number is useless since their PG didn't play the first 10-12 games or so with a broken ankle. Since his return they crushed Maryland at home and stomped Heels at UNC by double-digits.

Naj /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Miami won 100-something to like 35.

Naj

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops. Oh well, I know nothing about this sport.

[Action Scott]

Tonights picks: 1 unit each

-Georgia St. +14 @ Drexel (sagarin +11)
-WisGB -1.5 vs. Wright St. (sagarin -3)
-Virginia +3 vs. UNC (sagarin +1.5) I have not placed this wager yet, wagerline says 75% is on NC, I will wait closer to game time to try for extra 1/2pt.
Most other lines today were right on the sagarin estimate, except for one where there is a key injury that I don't want to touch.

[niss]

If you're going to be betting according to Sagarin, how are you not taking Samford at Morehead St. tonight? Take a look at that one.

[Action Scott]

Must have missed that one, good call, definitely meets my criteria.
Finalized Picks for tonight:
-Georgia St. +14 @ Drexel (sagarin +11)
-WisGB -1.5 vs. Wright St. (sagarin -3)
-Virginia +3.5 vs. UNC (sagarin +1.5) I did get my xtra .5
-Samford -13.5 vs. Morehead St. (sagarin -21)

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, my first round of picks (all bets are 1 unit unless otherwise stated). Hope my math is good.

My pick w/ VIP line (Sagarin estimate)
Duke -11.5 (-16) vs. NC State WON
Miami OH -6.5 (-9.5) vs. Toledo WON
Wis Milw -5 (-8) vs. Detroit LOST
Miss St. +5.5 (+3.5) vs. LSU LOST
Penn St. -6 (-7.5) vs. Purdue WON
BTW, i approximated sagarin's #'s a little to make it closer to an even point or 1/2 point. They shouldn't be off by more than .2 in any case.

[/ QUOTE ]

3-2, not a bad start. My late Penn St. pick helped a bit. We'll see what tomorrow holds.

[/ QUOTE ]

As did dook's luckbox home-cooking cover. [censored] dook. Go Pack.

[Action Scott]

[ QUOTE ]
Must have missed that one, good call, definitely meets my criteria.
Finalized Picks for tonight:
-Georgia St. +14 @ Drexel (sagarin +11) LOST
-WisGB -1.5 vs. Wright St. (sagarin -3) WON
-Virginia +3.5 vs. UNC (sagarin +1.5) WON
-Samford -13.5 vs. Morehead St. (sagarin -21) LOST

[/ QUOTE ]
2-2 tonight, still have my head above water overall at 5-4.

[Action Scott]

Just playing one tonight:

Marquette -4 v. Notre Dame (sagarin -6)

hmmmm, it does seem like the sagarin system favors the favorite the majority of the time, maybe I'll consult Brandon Lang on this...we'll see how it plays out.

[Kevroc]

[ QUOTE ]
Just playing one tonight:

Marquette -4 v. Notre Dame (sagarin -6)

hmmmm, it does seem like the sagarin system favors the favorite the majority of the time, maybe I'll consult Brandon Lang on this...we'll see how it plays out.

[/ QUOTE ]


Ouch! He never mentions Saragin in his write ups though /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Action Scott]

They made a movie about his life you know, though you'd never know it by visiting his website. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Action Scott]

[ QUOTE ]
Just playing one tonight:

Marquette -4 v. Notre Dame (sagarin -6) LOST

hmmmm, it does seem like the sagarin system favors the favorite the majority of the time, maybe I'll consult Brandon Lang on this...we'll see how it plays out.

[/ QUOTE ]

0-1 tonight, 5-5 to date

[Timmy Twist]

I just wanted to toss an example into this thread real quick that goes with my original arguments about Sagarin.

Today Sagarin says that Duke should be an 11.5 point favorite at Georgetown (yes home court is factored in). Vegas has made the line Duke -8. Looking at www.wagerline.com (http://www.wagerline.com) you'll see the consensus has around 75 percent of the public taking Duke.

My point is, why would Vegas make the line so low and let the public hammer one side like that? They could have easily favored Duke by 12 and gotten even action on both sides.

Sounds like a sucker play to me. I'm taking the Hoyas.

[Timmy Twist]

Just wanted to also note that there are two other games that fit the same criteria today.

St Johns +5
Baylor +20.5

I'm sure there are a few more, but I've only handicapped the first half of the schedule.

[waldo027]

I really hate going against Sagarin but I agree, I love betting against the general public and Duke hasn't look all that great lately. Taking Georgetown +8.5.

Another good bet looks like UConn -6.5 at Louisville. Sagarin predicts an 8.5 UConn win and Taquan Dean is out for Louisville.

[Action Scott]

Appreciate the input guys.
Picks for today:
Pitt -4.5 @ StJohns (sag -9.5)
Duke -8.5 @ GTown (sag -12.5) I know you guys hammered it, but it fits the system
Nebraska +11.5 @ Kansas (sag +6.5)
I may add UConn later

[waldo027]

I hope you didn't bet on Nebraska +11.5 already. I think you made a mistake with the Sagarin predictor.

Kansas: 84.78
Nebraska: 74.56

84.5 + 4 - 74.5 = 14 point Kansas win

[Timmy Twist]

St Johns +5 Won outright
Georgetown +8 Won outright
Baylor +20.5 Covered by a squeak

This is now my thread Action Scott! Jk. :-P

I sure hope you caught the Kansas one in time.

Has your bonus cleared yet?

[Action Scott]

[ QUOTE ]
St Johns +5 Won outright
Georgetown +8 Won outright
Baylor +20.5 Covered by a squeak

This is now my thread Action Scott! Jk. :-P

I sure hope you caught the Kansas one in time.

Has your bonus cleared yet?

[/ QUOTE ]
I will turn the thread over to you. I must have miscalculated the Kansas one. 0-3 today, ABORT ABORT. Not sure if this is a great idea or not, not just speaking to the record so far, but it seems Sagarin almost always favors the favorite and says they aren't giving enough points. Maybe it's not giving enough credit to home court either. I think i'll go back to my old method of throwing darts at a dartboard or maybe give Brandon Lang a call. And No, havent' finishing clearing yet, my plan was to make many small bets to clear it, in hopes I would end up at around .500 and just lose some juice off the bonus. Still may work, but I'm not going to use Sagarin exclusively anymore, but I'll still reference it for info.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
St Johns +5 Won outright
Georgetown +8 Won outright
Baylor +20.5 Covered by a squeak

This is now my thread Action Scott! Jk. :-P

I sure hope you caught the Kansas one in time.

Has your bonus cleared yet?

[/ QUOTE ]
I will turn the thread over to you. I must have miscalculated the Kansas one. 0-3 today, ABORT ABORT. Not sure if this is a great idea or not, not just speaking to the record so far, but it seems Sagarin almost always favors the favorite and says they aren't giving enough points.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm guessing that this has a lot to do with backdoor covers. I think Sagarins ratings are more of an "if both teams play all out the whole game" type thing. Just a theory.

[Timmy Twist]

I agree with Doug. I wonder if you could use his ratings somehow in relation to the moneyline. Kind of the same way people try to figure out which baseball teams are undervalued and take advantage of the juicy line.

[Jack of Arcades]

Yeah, using Sagarin (NCAABB, NCAAF) or DVOA (NFL) you're better off just betting the moneyline. I think your best bet is to look for times where there's a discrepancy with the underdog instead of the favorite.