How to calculate risk of ruin at online casino?

[Smelly]

X-post from probability, figure it applies better here:

Hey guys,

I'm wondering how I can calculate the risk of busting at each online casino and also what the standard deviations are.

I know that you have to use the house advantage %, bonus amount, bet size and wagering requirement to come up with the risk of ruin. I'm just not sure how to do it.

Any help would be appreciated, or maybe an example would work better.

Assume that you have to wager $8800 to clear a $200 bonus and the casino's advantage is 0.53%.

So the EV for this bonus is $153.36. How do I calculate risk of ruin and the standard deviations for one sigma, two sigma, etc at different bet sizes ranging from $1 all the way up? If I could see one example I could probably understand it.

Thanks.

And in case you guys don't understand what I'm asking, here's an example of what I want:

site (http://www.bonusbug.com/cgi-bin/yabb/YaBB.cgi?board=casino;action=display;num=110973350 3)

" In the above example for StarLuck if you bet the minimum of $1 there is less than a 0.01% chance that you will lose all your money before you wager $1,600. It’s virtually impossible to bust out if you bet the minimum. If you bet $2 on each hand, there is about a 0.5% chance you’ll bust out. Betting $3 a hand creates about a 2% chance of busting out. Betting $5 a hand is about 4%."

" If you bet $2 a hand, your standard deviation is $65.00. So 65% of the time you’ll show a profit of between $25 and $155.

If you bet $3 a hand, 65% of the time you’ll show a profit of between $10 and $170.

If you bet $5 a hand, 65% of the time you’ll show a profit of between -$6 and $186."

[Necromancer]

i dont know if you are talking about BJ, but this might help

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix12.html

[Reef]

I've only seen that blackjack link above. Haven't found any other sites with other games risk of ruin.

[Smelly]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont know if you are talking about BJ, but this might help

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix12.html

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yes i am sorry. i should have classified. i only play BJ.
thanks.

but i don't understand those charts at all. is there a formula i can use?

[kyleb]

Uh, Pontoon is legal. Play that.

[Smelly]

I don't know what pontoon is. I just want to find out risk of ruin for BJ based on bet size, wr, etc.

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know what pontoon is. I just want to find out risk of ruin for BJ based on bet size, wr, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's look at an example of how this table can be used. Assume the player makes a deposit of $1000 to an online casino and is required to bet through $5000 in action. If the player is to willing to play through 500 hands then his average bet size would be $5000/500 = $10. The number of betting units would be $1000/$10 = 100. The table shows the risk of ruin is 0.01% for 102 hands, so would be just over 0.01% for 100. Perhaps this is to conservative so the player considers playing 200 hands. The bet size is now $5000/200 = $25. The number of units is $1000/$25 = 40. Interpolating the table shows the risk of ruin would be 1.5%.

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[Smelly]

I understand now, but hte table only goes up to 3000 bets. How do I calculate rOR if I need more than that to clear a WR? is ther a formula?

[kyleb]

Search Wizard of Odds for Pontoon.

Play that instead.

[Smelly]

[ QUOTE ]
Search Wizard of Odds for Pontoon.

Play that instead.

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i wantto clear bonuses- i don't think most of the sites i'm whoring have pontoon.

[kyleb]

I thought you meant OnlineCasino.com, which is Playtech, which has Pontoon (usually).

[Smelly]

ah i didnt. so do you know how to do it for various casinos?