How many outs do I really have?

[mroels]

So the other day I explained the basic concepts to a friend of mine who is a bridge player. When explaining the concept of calculating outs he asked me how to calculate for the amount of dead out that have been dealt and mucked by other players?

The more i think about it the more i realize that already have a tendency to fold certain draws at a full ring game because i feel that the chance that my out have been dealt is larger than at a short handed table.

Till now i've found it difficult to declare any outs as dead cards unless my read on an opponent tells me he's chasing for the same flush/str8...

Ofcourse I know that the number of outs is based on the cards that you haven't seen yet but is there a way to calculate the odds that my outs have been dealt out and are essentially dead?

And if there is a way to calculate dead outs is it really proper strategy to take this into account?


Any thoughts?

[bigt2k4]

WOOHOO! we have another n00b posting this trash! Thats about one every 2 weeks for the last year.

[mroels]

ok i'm a noob...now just explain the theory behind my question whether its right or wrong and why? think you can do that mr. pro poker hot stuff?

[pzhon]

If you have no information about the cards that have been mucked, you should treat them the same as cards that have not been dealt.

You can break the situation into cases based on how many of your outs have been dealt to other players and mucked. If you do the calculation carefully, you get exactly the same answer as if you ignored this apparent complication. That happens because not only have some outs been removed, but a proportionate number of nonouts have also been removed.

[bigt2k4]

next time do a search, there are these posts every other week and always by someone with less than 50posts.

[Thriller]

rather than berating him and making him feel unwelcome, why not post a FAQ as a sticky like some of the forums?

[mroels]

[ QUOTE ]
You can break the situation into cases based on how many of your outs have been dealt to other players and mucked. If you do the calculation carefully, you get exactly the same answer as if you ignored this apparent complication. That happens because not only have some outs been removed, but a proportionate number of nonouts have also been removed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you, thats exactly the explaination i was looking for. I've been trying to do the math and did keep coming up with the same number of out but couldn't quite figure out why...stats has never been my strong suit, more of a calculus person for some reason(took me a while to instictively recognize odds in different situations)so while i could do the math easily i didn't know what it meant.


[ QUOTE ]
next time do a search, there are these posts every other week and always by someone with less than 50posts.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm quite lazy and in my opinion the internet gives me quick access to info..so i ask rather than look (unless its in the FAQ)... don't like it then don't respond..you'd have used just as much energy giving me the info i was looking for as trying to berate me....and btw just because i have less than 50 posts on 2+2 doesn't make me a noob at poker... i've been playing successfully for years... and i should never take into consideration mucked cards as far as my odds/outs go but i just never really bothered to find out why you can't mathematically account for it...now that i have access to so many other much more talented players knowledge i just wanted a final explaination.