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koolsavas
06-20-2006, 12:04 AM
so slow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

any way to speed it up?

can i use a system like martingale to get more bets out faster or will i bust? should i flatbet $2 or maybe three-spot $1 flat?

jackybpho
06-20-2006, 12:16 AM
turn off the sound and flatbet $20, i guarantee it'll go faster than both of the alternatives you presented.

koolsavas
06-20-2006, 12:34 AM
sound already off, 20 bucks seems a little excessive innit? i'm used to $1 flat and have had poor luck with bonuses...

jackybpho
06-20-2006, 12:44 AM
the EV is the same no matter if you bet $1 or $20. why not just bet $20 and get the bonus done faster? makes a whole lot of sense since the EV is exactly the same if you bet $1 or $20.

jba
06-20-2006, 12:46 AM
[ QUOTE ]
the EV is the same no matter if you bet $1 or $20. why not just bet $20 and get the bonus done faster? makes a whole lot of sense since the EV is exactly the same if you bet $1 or $20.

[/ QUOTE ]

i guess it's monday

EV is higher betting 20

let the flaming commence

McT
06-20-2006, 01:25 AM
....except when it isn't.

The WR carried over to the next month on several of the Cryptos I busted. Don't know if that is still the case.

Smelly
06-20-2006, 01:25 AM
[ QUOTE ]
the EV is the same no matter if you bet $1 or $20. why not just bet $20 and get the bonus done faster? makes a whole lot of sense since the EV is exactly the same if you bet $1 or $20.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's not the same because it increases your variance and variance can be positive or negative for you. if the EV was the same for $20 bes as $1 bets then it would make zero sense to make 20 bets because you'd be increasing your busting chance dramaticallly and the time you save wouldn't be worth it.

jba
06-20-2006, 01:30 AM
smelly,

you're a bit off in your thinking bud. variance and EV don't have anything to do with each other here. you are correct that larger bets increase variance. but just as you are increasing your busting chance dramatically, you're increasing your big score chance dramatically.

aside from the fact that EV increases with larger bets (unless as McT points out the WR carries over in a monthly bonus) - you should find proof of this if you search this forum for recent ed miller posts - your hourly EV goes up considerably by making larger bets.

Smelly
06-20-2006, 01:33 AM
[ QUOTE ]
smelly,

you're a bit off in your thinking bud. variance and EV don't have anything to do with each other here. you are correct that larger bets increase variance. but just as you are increasing your busting chance dramatically, you're increasing your big score chance dramatically.

aside from the fact that EV increases with larger bets (unless as McT points out the WR carries over in a monthly bonus) - you should find proof of this if you search this forum for recent ed miller posts - your hourly EV goes up considerably by making larger bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jba I totally agree and never said otherwise. My first line of my post was agreeing with you in that it's not the same. Varying your bet size will vary your EV but it will also increase your standard deviation and your expected profit range. as your -3 sigma will move outward, so will the +3 sigma.

sorry for the misunderstanding.

koolsavas
06-20-2006, 09:04 PM
[ QUOTE ]
the EV is the same no matter if you bet $1 or $20. why not just bet $20 and get the bonus done faster? makes a whole lot of sense since the EV is exactly the same if you bet $1 or $20.

[/ QUOTE ]

because i know i'd lose it all. do you ever cash out the exact EV that you played? doing bet365 i only cashed 15 of the 200 bonus flat betting $1 so forgive my n00bieness but i think it's a bit crazy to bet $20 at once.

koolsavas
06-21-2006, 12:59 AM
cleared it using mostly $3 bets. gotta wait for my gp cashout to clear to deposit through neteller to withdraw the bonus though, i was able to retain 85 of the 200 bonus dollars. not bad, but gp was nicer (the full 300 squid). heading to planetluck next i think, but i have to count bets for it so maybe not.