St Johns

[Mike Cuneo]

According to Wagerline.com, the public is all over Louisville, with a whopping 85.9% picking them -2.5 at St Johns. I really like St Johns here. Any thoughts?

[CCx]

What are your thoughts on why you like St. Johns?

[Mike Cuneo]

Public (squares) are all over Louisville and Louisville couldn't hold the lead vs Pitt. 85% is just way too high IMO.

[CCx]

Ok well that's some pretty shoddy analysis... so here's some points to think about for this game:

- Louisville is playing without leading scorer and team leader Taquan Dean
- Louisville just lost a key Big East matchup to Pittsburgh on their home court
- Louisville is now 1-2 in the Big East, making this a key conference game
- St. Johns is welcoming back their leading scorer Hill after he missed a few games due to injury

Sooo... we've got a preseason powerhouse that's missing their best player and coming off a huge conference loss at home, playing another conference game on the road against a team barely over .500 that is clearly outmatched both in talent and coaching.

I think I'd stay about as far away as possible from this game, too many unknown elements come into play. Line seems to be almost perfect. Betting against squares based on wagerline/sportsbook stats is not usually the best strategy (see NFL, '05-'06)

If you held a gun to my head and pulled the trigger if I was wrong, I'd pick Louisville without thinking twice.

[Mike Cuneo]

[ QUOTE ]

Betting against squares based on wagerline/sportsbook stats is not usually the best strategy (see NFL, '05-'06)



[/ QUOTE ]

The thing with the NFL this year is that it was so unusual since I think it was 63% of favorites covered. Normally, betting underdogs and going against the public is a smart, winning strategy. It's pretty simple, because if the public won the majority of bets there would be no sports books. The public has no clue what it's doing. Why do casinos make such huge profits on teasers, parlays, and pleasers? Because the public has no clue (or doesn't care) about the true odds. 85% is just way too many people on Louisville here.

Also, the public is comprised of people who will bet on their favorite team no matter what the line is. The public also looks at things like preseason rankings way too much. Tennessee in college football is a good example. Preseason rankings really carry way too much weight in college football and basketball, and I think Louisville is a tad overrated. And you said it best when you said Dean is out and St Johns is welcoming back its leading scorer. That just adds to the advantage for St Johns +2.5

[DougOzzzz]

Sagarin predictor has a fair line at 1.5.

After reading CCx's post, I'd say St. John's looks like a solid bet.

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say St. John's looks like a solid bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love St John's. Never seen 'em play. Have seen Louisville but what the hell do I know? I know the suckers at bigguy are all over Louisville and that is typically good enough for me. Adding in the fact St John is both home and a dog just sweetens the pot. Home home home home court plus points is my favorite betting demographic in hoops. Especially when the known suckers are all over the other side.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
After reading CCx's post, I'd say St. John's looks like a solid bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying this because of the information I provided about the game, or because I said I'd take Louisville in a life-and-death situation.... or both. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Betting against squares based on wagerline/sportsbook stats is not usually the best strategy (see NFL, '05-'06)



[/ QUOTE ]

The thing with the NFL this year is that it was so unusual since I think it was 63% of favorites covered. Normally, betting underdogs and going against the public is a smart, winning strategy. It's pretty simple, because if the public won the majority of bets there would be no sports books. The public has no clue what it's doing. Why do casinos make such huge profits on teasers, parlays, and pleasers? Because the public has no clue (or doesn't care) about the true odds. 85% is just way too many people on Louisville here.

[/ QUOTE ]

As much as I love reading/hearing the same things over and over, consider the following:

In a vacuum, as this game clearly is for the OP, going against the public with a single bet can have disasterous results.

[niss]

[ QUOTE ]
Sagarin predictor has a fair line at 1.5.

After reading CCx's post, I'd say St. John's looks like a solid bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hill is not 100%, but he did play in St. John's win at USF. St. John's, however, remains an erratic work-in-progress. Their 6 losses include losses to Hofstra and Marist. Who have they beaten this year? Well, pretty much nobody. But they have largely played this season without a healthy Hill.

Louisville's Sagarin number looks out of whack, due to a ridiculously soft schedule. Their 3 losses -- Pitt, Nova, and at Villanova -- are nothing to be ashamed of. I'd say the spread seems low based on the Dean injury, but as Doug says, the Sagarin number is in line, and that doesn't factor in the Dean injury.

My point being -- I have no comfort with either side in this game and think it's a no play.

[hoyasnaxa]

I saw St Johns play my school, Gtown, and they are not good. Gtown easily beat St johns, and I think Louisville is as goodif not better than gtown. I do not like St johns at all.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
After reading CCx's post, I'd say St. John's looks like a solid bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying this because of the information I provided about the game, or because I said I'd take Louisville in a life-and-death situation.... or both. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

mostly the information.

Basically, you said injuries favor St. John's. That means that if one were to make a line based on Sagarin and injuries alone, it would probably be more like a Pk.

So, we've got 3 factors here:

1. Public is all over Louisville
2. Sagarin predictor thinks line is off
3. Home dogs are good.

Individually none of them is enough to make a bet either way, but combined I'd suspect that this subset is a long-term winner.

I can't argue college basketball points with anyone as I don't know enough about either team. For someone who wants to blindly bet on a game, I'd say St. John's meets the criteria though.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
Basically, you said injuries favor St. John's.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just listed a few facts to help the OP. Interpret as you see fit.

What I said was "I think I'd stay about as far away as possible from this game" - and I will /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[badpokerplyr]

I'm actually on the sucker play today for a couple units. First off agree with hoyasnaxa, STJ is not very good at all, the Gtown and plenty of other games have shown that. Louisville has driven me crazy this year but i do think they bounce back tonight against a team they they match up really nicely with. STJ will have a hard time preventing good 3pt looks and keeping up with a much more athletic team.

Dean's injury is not that big a deal to me for this game at least, Louisville's scoring is typically well balanced. Also the freshman who replaces Dean is a bit inconsistent but very talented, he did light up Pitt for 25 pts in his 2nd game as the starter.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Basically, you said injuries favor St. John's.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just listed a few facts to help the OP. Interpret as you see fit.

What I said was "I think I'd stay about as far away as possible from this game" - and I will /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Right - well, I mostly just read the facts of your post and ignored the opinion. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[CCx]

zing!

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
Sagarin predictor has a fair line at 1.5.

After reading CCx's post, I'd say St. John's looks like a solid bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
I see Sagarin's predictor calling a fair line 0.5 for this game, and on Bowmans you can get St. Johns +3.5, so if you like DougOzzzz's arguments, that's probably the one to go with.

[eggzz]

Even if the public is wrong on a consistent basis 55% of the time, that means that they are right 45% of the time.

So..if you are basing your analysis soley on the fact that too many "squares" are backing Louisville tonite, you need to keep in mind that the BarStoolPundits win on occasion too.

The game probably already started and Louisville is probably down by double digits right now, but just trying to make a point.

[Mike Cuneo]

Starts at 9:05, and I'm hoping to win, but not exactly betting my life savings on it. Anything can happen in one single game, I just think it's a good opportunity.

[badpokerplyr]

Wow what a stinker in the 2nd half for the Cards. Padgett is scoreless and they've missed over 1/2 their free throws.. thought I was going to have a great night until this game.

[Mike Cuneo]

68-56 win GG squares.

[siccjay]

[ QUOTE ]

If you held a gun to my head and pulled the trigger if I was wrong, I'd pick Louisville without thinking twice.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.mshp.dps.missouri.gov/MSHPWeb/PatrolDivisions/CLD/TraceEvidence/Images/GSRPic1.jpg

[CCx]

yah, glad i didnt touch the game - thanks for your helpful addition to the thread

[DougOzzzz]

You know what they say.

When you're wrong 52% of the time, you're right 48% of the time.

[siccjay]

Don't mention it.

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if the public is wrong on a consistent basis 55% of the time, that means that they are right 45% of the time.

So..if you are basing your analysis soley on the fact that too many "squares" are backing Louisville tonite, you need to keep in mind that the BarStoolPundits win on occasion too.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand your point? Are you saying having a 55% chance to win (a pick'em line) is bad because you will lose 45% of the time?

If it is in fact a 55% chance you are getting great edge and will become a long term winner if you consistently take advantage of these opportunities.