BlackJack Whoring --> 17% change?

[Jehaim]

Played several casinos with BlackJack bonusses.

I played 6000 (!) bets.

The edge for the casinos was 0.50% at the 'worst' one.

So I should have lost 30 bets.

I lost 145 bets.

Like the casinos had a 2.41% edge.

Is the change of that happening 17%?

[Ken_AA]

sounds ok to me.

Ken

[Sharksfan]

Honestly, 6000 bets isn't alot to judge by, try 100,000 or a million, otherwise the numbers could be off either way.

[kyleb]

Hoo boy, 6000 bets.

[KUJustin]

Not sure what planet you guys are on but 6000 is a pretty hefty sample size especially for something that's pretty close to a coinflip.

[godofgamblers]

Blackjack as a whole is a coinflip. If you don't have a large sample of each individual scenario (6 vs 10, 5 vs 7, 3 vs 4, etc) then you don't come close to hitting the expected values. Besides, 6000 bets is maybe 3-4 casino bonuses, so you can understand the general tone.

[Siegmund]

KUJustin is referring to the fact that, flipping a coin, you'd expect to see a standard deviation of about 40 after 6000 trials - so, at first glace, this looks like about a -3 sigma event. By no means impossible, but enough to count as some pretty bad luck.

[Smelly]

[ QUOTE ]
KUJustin is referring to the fact that, flipping a coin, you'd expect to see a standard deviation of about 40 after 6000 trials - so, at first glace, this looks like about a -3 sigma event. By no means impossible, but enough to count as some pretty bad luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Only a 0.25% chance of it happening, right?

3 sigmas is 100-99.5= 0.5%, but you have to divide by two because there's times where he will run so well that he'll end up 3 standard deviations ABOVE the average, which of course he'd love.

Is my math right? I'm trying to get good at this stuff.

[Thremp]

Are you sure the house edge is only .5%. I've seen some BJ games with [censored] rules and misclicks... wrong charts etc. add to that.

[kyleb]

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure what planet you guys are on but 6000 is a pretty hefty sample size especially for something that's pretty close to a coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]

A single hand of blackjack is only a coinflip in theory, not in practice.

[jba]

the wiz says there is more than 5% chance of taking this kind of loss:

link (http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix4.html)

[Jehaim]

[ QUOTE ]
the wiz says there is more than 5% chance of taking this kind of loss:

link (http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix4.html)

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, ty. So just a 1 outer. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[koolsavas]

i took university stats and game/decision theory classes and i still don't understand all the odds shmit you guys talk. weak huh? i wish i had the passion to dedicate to learning the numbers behind gambling. i also wish i retained anything i studied or read. i also wish my beer was a bit colder, i mean it's been half an hour in the fridge...

[kiemo]

I've done worse

I've done better

Standard.

[winchips]

[ QUOTE ]
the wiz says there is more than 5% chance of taking this kind of loss:

link (http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix4.html)

[/ QUOTE ]

dont forget this is also at OPTIMAL play. If your like me add in a few misclicks, ect.

[Scorcho]

Roll the beer in a tray full of loose ice cubes. Cools it faster.

[HalvSame]

Meh. Problem: beer is not cooled fast enough. Solution: Keep more than enough cold beer in the fridge at all times. This adds the ability to stay more drunk over longer periods of time as well.

OP: there's no "should have". Long term it just "is". Short term it just "doesn't matter". (But you knew these things and just needed to vent, right? /images/graemlins/wink.gif)

[moondogg]

I knew a guy who bought a car from an ad in the paper once.

Ten years later, BAM!, herpes.