"Deal or No Deal" final show- conspiracy?

[Lottery Larry]

Just kidding, but something I noticed last night.

My previous attempts to figure out the banker's strategy are here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=5920422)

[Spoiler alert if anyone cares]
Now, last night the offers that I saw were well under the average case value... until the woman knocked out the $100K case and had four cases left ($750K and the rest were $100 or less).

Suddenly, the banker offers $196K for a $8500 gain (I think the previous offer was $147K with 5 cases left and $850K in prize money) and she took the deal, correctly IMO.

THEN, each of the "if you'd said 'No Deal'" that followed were all increasingly +EV to take, until it was revealed that her case held the $750K.

So, are the banker's deals mainly based on risk of ruin at the end... or did they KNOW that she had the big case and they didn't want to pay off any more than $200K?

They could have offered her $160-170K and she most likely would have accepted the -EV offer.

I say it's a setup! :P

[Double Down]

[ QUOTE ]
Just kidding, but something I noticed last night.

My previous attempts to figure out the banker's strategy are here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=5920422)

[Spoiler alert if anyone cares]
Now, last night the offers that I saw were well under the average case value... until the woman knocked out the $100K case and had four cases left ($750K and the rest were $100 or less).

Suddenly, the banker offers $196K for a $8500 gain (I think the previous offer was $147K with 5 cases left and $850K in prize money) and she took the deal, correctly IMO.

THEN, each of the "if you'd said 'No Deal'" that followed were all increasingly +EV to take, until it was revealed that her case held the $750K.

So, are the banker's deals mainly based on risk of ruin at the end... or did they KNOW that she had the big case and they didn't want to pay off any more than $200K?

They could have offered her $160-170K and she most likely would have accepted the -EV offer.

I say it's a setup! :P

[/ QUOTE ]



If they knew that she had the big case, they probably would have been more inclined to offer her a bigger deal so that she'd take it and not want to keep going on.

The offers were exceptionally low compared to what the cases were worth yesterday for the mere reason that the offers were what people were used to seeing. The player, nor any the studio audience, nor the audience at home probably thought for one second that since all of the larger amounts had been significantly increased that so should the offers. Sure, the offers were slightly higher than usual, but not nearly what they should have been.


And as for after she takes the deal and they do the "if you had kept on going" speculation part, they ALWAYS ridiculously increase the offer amounts. it's hilarious. It's like if there are 5 cases left, the million and 4 tiny amounts, and the offer is 180K and the contestant takes the deal, the next deal with 4 cases left would be $300K, then 420K, then with 2 cases left, the offer would be for, like $600K plus a beej from Celine Dion.

And how in the world does the contestant know what case they WOULD have chosen? LOL The deterministic in me always gets annoyed by that.

What a goofy ass show

[Quadstriker]

[ QUOTE ]


What a BORING ass show

[/ QUOTE ]

fyp

[GMan42]

[ QUOTE ]
the offer would be for, like $600K plus a beej from Celine Dion.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please no. Do I get the option to just slap her instead? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[rakemeplz]

Actually its usually at about the 4th case left that the EV goes up...at least thats my judgment from watching the show occasionally...but yeah it tends to vary EV way up then way down so you'd basicly be a fool to not take it when the EV shoots way up.

[Lottery Larry]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually its usually at about the 4th case left that the EV goes up...at least thats my judgment from watching the show occasionally...but yeah it tends to vary EV way up then way down so you'd basicly be a fool to not take it when the EV shoots way up.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be good to be able to estimate when the banker would get close to +EV in offers- if I watch the show again I'll have to keep my eye out on your "4 cases" rule.