POTW-Bowl week FSU +10 v Penn ST

[MyTurn2Raise]

OK, I'm back for my pick of the week for the bowl week and, as foreshadowed many times, I'm taking Florida ST +10 v Penn ST for my big pick this bowl season.

Everyone knows I haven't believed in Penn St, or any big10 team except for tOSU, all year. My disbelief continues. Penn St is a good team, but that's it. They are just in the top 10 and no better. Florida St is right there with them. These teams are nearly a toss-up in my mind and the spread just boggles me, even with the loss of the LB. The practices leading up to a bowl game cannot be underestimated. FSU has national title type talent, much like the Sooners, and have a chance to get back on track and redeem the season. Expect that to happen. Penn St offense has surprised me all year, but the FSU defense has a way of punishing and punishing and punishing. Penn ST has been quite used to tearing up slow big10 teams. FSU is not a slow big10 team. Look for Penn St to repeat the performance of the Ohio State game on offense (17 pts, 78 yards passing, 126 yards rushing). That game, PSU had no turnovers. I don't expect them to repeat that. Maybe, 17 points again, but no turnovers would be a miracle.

Now, the Penn St D definitely matches up well against the FSU offense. But, I cannot see them holding FSU below 10, as every opponent but C Michigan put up at least 10 v Penn St. And, I'm counting on the FSU defense or special teams to set-up the offense with a short field a few times.

IMO, the final score will be about FSU 20, PSU 13.

My fears are the Penn St D scoring and Galen Hall developing a few great offensive plays with so much time to prepare.

MY POTW-bowl week is Florida St +10 v Penn St
the line is really good now since the dismissal of the FSU lb

FYI-I'm 21-8 NCAA ytd on my 2+2 ATS recommendations
I'm 9-5 POTW ytd
I also love and recommend Ohio St -4 1/2 v Notre Dame
and Texas + 7 1/2 v USC

[Xaston]

Are you betting the FSU moneyline too?

[MyTurn2Raise]

yes, a small amount

[MyTurn2Raise]

bumped for Tuesday

[fun160]

[ QUOTE ]
That game, PSU had no turnovers. I don't expect them to repeat that. Maybe, 17 points again, but no turnovers would be a miracle.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why a miracle? In their first 3.5 games PSU turned the ball over 14 times. In the last 7.5 games they turned it over just 7 times. I don't know what Joe and/or Galen said in the locker room at halftime in Evanston, but it worked.

This hasn't exactly been a ball-hawking FSU squad. They are ranked a pedestrian 60th out of 117 I-A teams in turnovers gained.

But I agree with you that turnovers are the key to the game.

Florida State turnover margin, two big wins:
Miami +1
VaTech +2

Florida State turnover margin, losses:
Virginia -3
NC State -3
Clemson -1
Florida -2

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone knows I haven't believed in Penn St, or any big10 team except for tOSU, all year. My disbelief continues. Penn St is a good team, but that's it. They are just in the top 10 and no better. Florida St is right there with them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm missing something and I know I'm talking my position, but if PSU protects the ball they win easily.

Not including today's games, which will favor Penn State, the Nittany Lions have Sagarin's 21st-toughest schedule while FSU's is 42nd. That being said, here are their national ranks. (Again, these do not factor in today's games.)

Rushing Offense
PSU: 13
FSU: 107

Passing Offense
FSU: 16
PSU: 78

Passing Efficiency
PSU: 46
FSU: 64

Total Offense
PSU: 30
FSU: 51

Scoring Offense
PSU: 12
FSU: 42

Rushing Defense
PSU: 12
FSU: 18

Pass Defense
FSU: 33
PSU: 45

Pass Efficiency Defense
PSU: 16
FSU: 49

Total Defense
FSU: 15
PSU: 17

Scoring Defense
PSU: 11
FSU: 28

Turnover Margin
PSU: 40
FSU: 84

Better scoring offense, better scoring defense, and better turnover margin against a better schedule. I've got PSU -7.5 from several weeks ago. I'll hedge some if I can get FSU +10.5 at -105.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Penn St did it against the Big10; which I maintain is a league of extraordinary crap, except for tOSU. I do not and have not ever bought into scheduling ranks...they suck.

IMO, different teams often take the field during bowl games, and I add this effect into my bowl handicapping. I feel Florida St's talent is going to look much, much better after 3 weeks of practices/sexual assualts.

Plus, I think the speed effect will be huge. The Penn St offense will not be prepared for the onslaught. The only similar D faced all year was tOSU. The other teams Penn St faced were S Florida, Cincinnati, C Michigan, N'Western, Minnesota, Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan St. Nearly all of these defenses are a joke at best.

[Perseus]

You can maintain the Big 10 sucks all you want, but OSU played outstanding against a solid Notre Dame team and Wisconsin (a team PSU beat handily) beat a very good Auburn team 21-7.

Flordia St. lost to NC state, Clemson, and got beat badly by Flordia in three out of the last four weeks of the season. Also, it's not like Flordia State hasn't played it's share of crap teams such as Citidal and Duke.

You are acting ast if Flordia St. was pounding teams all year and it is unbelivable that they are 10 point dogs. They are 10 point dogs for a reason.

I'm not saying they won't cover and they have no chance at winning. I'm saying your arguements for why they WILL win are faulty at best and make you sound semi-ignorant about what's been going on this season.

I'm not saying this is true for you, but if Flordia St. was exactly the same team under a lesser known name, some people's perceptions on their chances would be vastly different.

That said, any team can beat any team on any day...good luck with your bets.

Jon

[fun160]

[ QUOTE ]
I feel Florida St's talent is going to look much, much better after 3 weeks of practices/sexual assualts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Props for that line, funny stuff.

[ QUOTE ]
The other teams Penn St faced were S Florida, Cincinnati, C Michigan, N'Western, Minnesota, Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan St. Nearly all of these defenses are a joke at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, Auburn fans thought Wisconsin's defense was a joke too, until they were held 24 points under their average.


http://i.cnn.net/si/si_online/covers/images/2005/1128_large.jpg

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying they won't cover and they have no chance at winning. I'm saying your arguements for why they WILL win are faulty at best and make you sound semi-ignorant about what's been going on this season.

I'm not saying this is true for you, but if Flordia St. was exactly the same team under a lesser known name, some people's perceptions on their chances would be vastly different.


[/ QUOTE ]


Do ordinary teams go out and beat Miami and V Tech? Do ordinary teams start the year as a top pick for a national title? It's not the name that gets me, it's the talent. I am aware of what happened in 3 of the last 4 games, but those were weeks ago. I'm also aware that if Weatherford goes out and throws a bunch of picks, it's going to be a long day.

I also know that the Big10 (Pac-10 East) played no defense this year. You forgot to mention the Cornhuskers piling up points on Michigan, The Gators doing likewise verse Iowa, Minnesota's defense being decimated by Virginia, and Northwestern blowing a 22-0 lead within 10 minutes to UCLA. I've been bragging up tOSU going into the bowl season and reaped the benefits of that game. Wisconsin is the one game that went unexpected. They found a defensive line in the last 6 weeks...good for them. Otherwise, fading the Big10 looks quite profitable, as it did in the non-conference weeks against major opponents (Texas v tOSU, Iowa St v Iowa, ND v Michigan, ND v Mich St, ND v Purdue, Cal v ILL, Purdue V AZ, AZ St v N'western, IU v Kentuck, Wisc v N Car). The big 10 went 4-6 ATS in those games and 1-4 ATS in the first 5 listed, which were the bigger match-ups.

Here are the vaunted defenses PSU faced during the season and the ypg given up
Wisconsin: 432.5
N'Western: 482.9
Michigan: 347.6
Minnesota: 407.6
Purdue: 430.7
Mich St: 409.5
Illinois: 469.3
Cincinnati: 401.6
C Michigan: 394.5

S Florida: 313
tOSU: 275.3

The Nittany Lions scored 23 and 17 verse the last two opponents. Florida St gives up 302.4 and falls inbetween these two defenses. Is it that outrageous to think PSU will buck the odds if they score over 20, thus making 10 points an absolute gift of a spread? One could argue that the Big10 offenses were just so good that the defenses had to give up big-time yardage. Well, it appears that is not the case as Nebraska, Virginia, UCLA, and Florida all had their way as well.

As for me being somewhat ignorant, maybe. After all, I'm just some dude who posts on internet forums. But, I'll take my ignorant, lucky ass over 70% ATS in NCAA football this year to the bank.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
But, I'll take my ignorant, lucky ass over 70% ATS in NCAA football this year to the bank.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your post was informative and fact-filled, and you made a compelling argument for your position... all the way up to this point - congrats on sounding like a douche, and good luck with your wager.

[Easy E]

MyTurn, what are you doing? Take a step back and cool down.

You're taking debate waytoo personally.

[holeplug]

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone knows I haven't believed in Penn St, or any big10 team except for tOSU, all year.

[/ QUOTE ]

But Penn State beat Ohio State this year so....?????

[NajdorfDefense]

Have you thought about the under instead? 47.5 looks high for Weatherford v PSU's D. And FSU always has a stout D come bowl time, at least almost always.

Naj

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But, I'll take my ignorant, lucky ass over 70% ATS in NCAA football this year to the bank.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your post was informative and fact-filled, and you made a compelling argument for your position... all the way up to this point - congrats on sounding like a douche, and good luck with your wager.

[/ QUOTE ]

i was trying to be humble...I guess it didn't come off well with the phrasing

I'm just a dude who posts picks on the internet
Am I ignorant? yeah. I'm not a professional analyst. I'm not a coach. I'm some guy who watches alot and pays attention to scores of internet forums.
I did take it personally when another poster hinted that I was ignorant on my understanding of the season. So, I overreacted a bit. I'll try to restrain in the future.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you thought about the under instead? 47.5 looks high for Weatherford v PSU's D. And FSU always has a stout D come bowl time, at least almost always.

Naj

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah...I like the line more, so I recommended it. I also have a small bet on the under.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Everyone knows I haven't believed in Penn St, or any big10 team except for tOSU, all year.

[/ QUOTE ]

But Penn State beat Ohio State this year so....?????

[/ QUOTE ]

I lost a bunch of money on that game /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[lastsamurai]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm 9- 6 POTW ytd
I also love and recommend Ohio St -4 1/2 v Notre Dame
and Texas + 7 1/2 v USC


[/ QUOTE ]
in 4 hours FYP

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
My fears are the Penn St D scoring and Galen Hall developing a few great offensive plays with so much time to prepare.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow...I didn't think of Galen Hall coming out with a whole scheme of traps/counters/mis-direction to take advantage of the FSU speed and pursuit. Awesome game plan and FSU's lucky that Penn ST didn't take more advantage of this early. The first down pick by Robinson and three straight non-running plays when Penn St got the ball inside the FSU 30 on the next drive really let the Seminoles off the hook. It gave them time to adjust and gain confidence.

[CCx]

losing tony hunt was really a killer for the penn state offense

[MyTurn2Raise]

absolutely ridiculous officiating

umpteen million holding/clip/etc calls to give FSU offense no chance

safety on a screen pass right over the RBs head

it's like watching OSU-Miami all over again

[CCx]

nothing beats pressure situations

fumble!

and looks like puuzlssluszlusnny just got mcgahee'd.. that sucks

[Performify]

Thanks for the pick MyTurn. Wouldn't have been on this if it wasn't for you.

[CCx]

would someone make a kick, it's WAY past my bedtime..

[MyTurn2Raise]

Both kickers bet the over

[LotsOfOuts69]

Why cant Bowden see the ref's signaling No Good on FG's. Thats twice now he thought they were good.

I think this bowl has set the record for coaches needing the thickest glasses.

Thanks for the pick MyTurn. I got $ on the money line as well.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you thought about the under instead? 47.5 looks high for Weatherford v PSU's D. And FSU always has a stout D come bowl time, at least almost always.

Naj

[/ QUOTE ]

those motherf#$%ing kickers

good pick
injustice there

[MyTurn2Raise]

ugh...Penn St was the better team, but not by much
They tried to give it away. Their defense wouldn't let them.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Have you thought about the under instead? 47.5 looks high for Weatherford v PSU's D. And FSU always has a stout D come bowl time, at least almost always.

Naj

[/ QUOTE ]
those motherf#$%ing kickers
good pick
injustice there

[/ QUOTE ]

I got screwed by 3 missed Figgies and an XP.
Hard to believe, Harry. Not the first time, won't be the last. At least I was on FSU +10.5.

Besides, nothing compares to that meaningless Duke 3-pt at the buzzer in the Final Four couple years ago. That one felt like a gangland beating afterwards.

Naj

[fun160]

[ QUOTE ]
umpteen million holding/clip/etc calls to give FSU offense no chance

[/ QUOTE ]

These things don't happen in a vacuum. The Penn State D-line was too much for FSU, forcing the Noles to hold or have Weatherford killed. Just a continuation of FSU's season-long penalty problem.

[ QUOTE ]
safety on a screen pass right over the RBs head

[/ QUOTE ]

What in the world are you talking about? Clearly grounding, clearly a safety. Not even close.

I had PSU -7.5 earlier in the month, hedged part of it at -10, and faded the Forum with the Over when everyone here loved Under. All in all it was about a scratch, but a great victory to cap a dream season for Penn State.

[bills217]

Thanks again MT2R for a fine season...looking forward to next year already. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ElSapo]

[ QUOTE ]
Besides, nothing compares to that meaningless Duke 3-pt at the buzzer in the Final Four couple years ago. That one felt like a gangland beating afterwards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was in Vegas for this. Half the book was sitting down, dejected, the other half, me included, up cheering. Up goes the shot, down goes the shot -- standing half sits, sitting half stands. Horrible.

[Perseus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But, I'll take my ignorant, lucky ass over 70% ATS in NCAA football this year to the bank.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your post was informative and fact-filled, and you made a compelling argument for your position... all the way up to this point - congrats on sounding like a douche, and good luck with your wager.

[/ QUOTE ]

i was trying to be humble...I guess it didn't come off well with the phrasing

I'm just a dude who posts picks on the internet
Am I ignorant? yeah. I'm not a professional analyst. I'm not a coach. I'm some guy who watches alot and pays attention to scores of internet forums.
I did take it personally when another poster hinted that I was ignorant on my understanding of the season. So, I overreacted a bit. I'll try to restrain in the future.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't saying you were ignorant on your understanding of the season, I was saying the reasoning you first used to justify your picks made you sound ignorant. I was looking for sound analysis and all you gave was how much the Big Ten sucks, even though Wisconsin and Ohio State, two teams that Pstate beat, played very well in their bowl games. You also neglected to tell why you thought Flordia State lost those three games and why you thought those games were a fluke of sorts.

When you finally made your arguement after my post it justified why you chose Flordia State.

In all, it was a very, very good game and Flordia States speed DID suprise me. However, I wish the nation would have had a chance to see how good Tony Hunt has been playing this season.

[MyTurn2Raise]

yeah...for some reason I stopped masturbating (It's true--some OOT thread gone wrong) and I've become a bitter, thin-skinned person. But, I will remain master of my domain.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
You also neglected to tell why you thought Flordia State lost those three games and why you thought those games were a fluke of sorts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep...funny thing those games, I think Florida -4 v FSU was an earlier POTW for me. Basically, the FSU offense did less than nothing in those games (BIG SURPRISE) and the D, which had a few injuries through part of that stretch, tired out. No rushing offense and Weatherford throwing pick after pick was the byline of those three games.

The part of my thesis that fell through tonight was that FSU would be able to add some sort of rushing attack with 3 weeks more of practice. I wasn't expecting good, especially verse the Penn St D, but I expected near 100 yards. Not even close. The FSU dominance in the punting game made up for that missing link, though the PSU punt before the end of the first half was a huge play.

I think it was Penn St's ability to rush, even without Hunt, that made PSU the better team tonight. I mentioned in the sporting events forum that I thought PSU went away from the run a bit early and let FSU get some time to recover. Scott looked awesome for the first 20 minutes and then was MIA. That might also be due to fatigue, since he wasn't used to getting the number of carries a #1 back gets.

[PropPlayer]

I had Penn -2.5 and under 53 in a Tease. What a game to watch for my bet. At start of 3rd overtime this bet became a huge dog. Glad it came through.
I feel for anyone who took the under and lost in this game. Right call just very unlucky for them.

[ThaHero]

I took the Under. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Perseus]

[ QUOTE ]
I took the Under. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too...what a tease that was. I thought I was golden until the SECOND overtime.

[beavens]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I took the Under. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too...what a tease that was. I thought I was golden until the SECOND overtime.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think it should be a rule to murder all kickers who missed XPs and 29yd FGs.

[badpokerplyr]

[quote
i think it should be a rule to murder all kickers who missed XPs and 29yd FGs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have to admit that crossed my mind when this story broke:

TCU kicker murdered (http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news;_ylt=ApTpvCsoma8aro9cy_XxRhkcvrYF?slug=ap-tcu-playerkilled&prov=ap&type=lgns)

Turns out he was the kickoff specialist so unlikely.. but still crazy if motives are anything sports/gambling related.

[beavens]

[ QUOTE ]
[quote
i think it should be a rule to murder all kickers who missed XPs and 29yd FGs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have to admit that crossed my mind when this story broke:

TCU kicker murdered (http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news;_ylt=ApTpvCsoma8aro9cy_XxRhkcvrYF?slug=ap-tcu-playerkilled&prov=ap&type=lgns)

Turns out he was the kickoff specialist so unlikely.. but still crazy if motives are anything sports/gambling related.

[/ QUOTE ]

meh.. that makes a joke less funny /images/graemlins/frown.gif