Hedge this bet? (NFC championship game)

[jedi]

Last week, I placed a wager on Carolina to win the NFC (+411) because I felt it had some value, mainly because I thought that everyone loved Seattle and many others thought that Carolina couldn't win at Chicago.

Now, Carolina is in the NFC championship game, and I'm wondering if I should hedge on this game. I can guarantee myself a win if I bet Seattle on the money line (-180 right now), but part of me is just tempted to let it ride.

Should I take it? It's turns into a no risk, small reward play for me.

[dankhank]

yes, i think this is a spot where you hedge since your original bet is as much about people overvaluing seattle before the divisional games, as it is you grading carolina's chances to win the nfc. so you should follow through with your plan and hedge. i am planning to do a similar thing for the super bowl where i put down bets on a few nfc teams to win it all a month or so ago, when indy was still undefeated and the futures odds for the rest of the league were pretty good.

[ccwhoelse?]

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Last week, I placed a wager on Carolina to win the NFC (+411)

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can someone help me with this, is this correct

would +411 translate into 4.11 to 1.

would that then mean that carolina's chance of winning the NFC is 19.57% ?

[WarDekar]

I disagree. Unless you have some reason to believe that the line for this coming game is off in any way shape or form, you have to let your original bet ride... If you were originally betting it with the intent on hedging it later, then you should've bet more to begin with. Assuming you have a normal sized bet on Carolina, all you're doing by betting Seattle is diminishing the +EV of the original bet. Unless of course you think the Seattle bet is +EV in itself, in which case you wouldn't be asking this question. If you had no intention of hedging when you made the original bet, then you can't really hedge it now without taking a hit to your EV over the long run...

FWIW if you DO want to hedge, I would recommend some kind of teaser involving Seattle up to +3 with ties winning, maybe combine it with Pitt and have Pitt +10, Seattle +3, ties win for the hedge. At least that covers a BS teaser that should (in theory) be profitable regardless... As an added bonus, this would provide you with a middle opportunity on winning both the Carolina bet AND the teaser...

[DougOzzzz]

Only you can answer this question.

The factors to consider are:

1. Is the Seattle moneyline a good bet? If it is, then you most certainly should hedge regardless of other factors.

2. If the Seattle moneyline isn't a good bet, then you have to ask yourself whether the loss of EV is worth guaranteeing a profit. This depends on how "exposed" you are on your original bet, how much you like to gamble, etc. I really don't see how anyone in this forum can help you with this.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
Only you can answer this question.

The factors to consider are:

1. Is the Seattle moneyline a good bet? If it is, then you most certainly should hedge regardless of other factors.

2. If the Seattle moneyline isn't a good bet, then you have to ask yourself whether the loss of EV is worth guaranteeing a profit. This depends on how "exposed" you are on your original bet, how much you like to gamble, etc. I really don't see how1anyone in this forum can help you with this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I believe the moneyline is a good bet. I may have to look at some EV calculations on it, but I think -185 (last time I checked) isn't too bad for this team.

Looking back at the other posts, I'm not sure why the heck I made this bet. I certainly didn't do it just with the intention of hedging it, since it wasn't a slam dunk that Carolina would make it past Chicago. But I thought there was value in that line and there's value in picking Seattle now. I also placed a small bet on Denver to win the AFC, believing that Indy was overvalued too. Guess I got lucky.

Also, I'm not TOO exposed with this, but given that I'm a noob sports bettor, a guaranteed 1.5 unit win wouldn't make me sad, especially since I do think Seattle can win this game.

[ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Unless you have some reason to believe that the line for this coming game is off in any way shape or form, you have to let your original bet ride... If you were originally betting it with the intent on hedging it later, then you should've bet more to begin with. Assuming you have a normal sized bet on Carolina, all you're doing by betting Seattle is diminishing the +EV of the original bet. Unless of course you think the Seattle bet is +EV in itself, in which case you wouldn't be asking this question. If you had no intention of hedging when you made the original bet, then you can't really hedge it now without taking a hit to your EV over the long run...

[/ QUOTE ]

But, if I think the Seattle moneyline is also +EV, then I can also make that bet, right? That's the only thing that matters? And as I mentioned in this post, I wasn't going to load up on Carolina just to hedge this bet since it would expose me to more risk at potentially ZERO reward if Chicago won.

[ QUOTE ]

FWIW if you DO want to hedge, I would recommend some kind of teaser involving Seattle up to +3 with ties winning, maybe combine it with Pitt and have Pitt +10, Seattle +3, ties win for the hedge. At least that covers a BS teaser that should (in theory) be profitable regardless... As an added bonus, this would provide you with a middle opportunity on winning both the Carolina bet AND the teaser...


[/ QUOTE ]

I did think about this, where I'd effectively middle the bet. I know Sportsbook offers alternate lines for 1 game (like a 1 game teaser) where it might be Seattle +3 (-300). I'll have to look at the math when that line comes out, but I'd be reducing my "guaranteed" payoff for a chance at middling. Seeing as the game might be close, that's not a bad thing if I can capture the 3 on the other end. I teased Indy last weekend, believing their victory to be a sure thing, but not liking the -9 mainly for the same reason. Oops.

[legend42]

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yes, i think this is a spot where you hedge since your original bet is as much about people overvaluing seattle...

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So, because he believes Seattle is overvalued, he should place a bet on...Seattle?

As others have said, this is a money management question that only you can answer. If the reasons you stated for making the play are correct (Seattle overvalued, Carolina winning in CHI), then you have the perfect scenario for you. If you knew you were going to hedge (especially AGAINST your initial read) you should have just bet the Panthers in the Bears game, and taken your profit there.

[jedi]

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yes, i think this is a spot where you hedge since your original bet is as much about people overvaluing seattle...

[/ QUOTE ]

So, because he believes Seattle is overvalued, he should place a bet on...Seattle?

As others have said, this is a money management question that only you can answer. If the reasons you stated for making the play are correct (Seattle overvalued, Carolina winning in CHI), then you have the perfect scenario for you. If you knew you were going to hedge (especially AGAINST your initial read) you should have just bet the Panthers in the Bears game, and taken your profit there.

[/ QUOTE ]

For the record, I DID take the moneyline on the Panthers in the Bears game.

It wasn't just that I thought Seattle was overvalued, but also that the Bears were overvalued there as well, making it a better bet on Carolina at that point. At this point, I'm not sure Seattle is overvalued.

Is it impossible to make another +EV bet on Seattle, just because I've got one side picked already?

Also, if I were a gambling man, would I buy a bunch of points on Seattle to try to middle?

Anyways, thanks for the responses guys. I think I will take the moneyline to lock in a smaller profit here. As a noob bettor, I'm still learning how to handicap these games.

[Easy E]

[ QUOTE ]
Last week, I placed a wager on Carolina to win the NFC (+411) because I felt it had some value

if I bet Seattle on the money line (-180 right now), but part of me is just tempted to let it ride.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you have bankroll issues, make the "insurance" bet.

One question- would you have thought the Carolina bet had "value" at +231? Because that's what you're doing, to some extent.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Last week, I placed a wager on Carolina to win the NFC (+411) because I felt it had some value

if I bet Seattle on the money line (-180 right now), but part of me is just tempted to let it ride.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you have bankroll issues, make the "insurance" bet.

One question- would you have thought the Carolina bet had "value" at +231? Because that's what you're doing, to some extent.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't have bankroll issues here, but again, I do like Seattle's chances of winning this game.

Am I making it down to +231 now? There's 0 risk, small reward if I make the insurance bet. Can I actually pot odds on what the effective odds are now?

[WarDekar]

Read my post, I think teasing is your best method of hedging here by far.

[jedi]

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Read my post, I think teasing is your best method of hedging here by far.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's what I see on Pinny.

SEA -4 (EVEN)
SEA (ML) -180
SEA +3.5 -275

Right now, I have CAR +411.

For example's sake, let's say I've got $100 to win $411

If I take the Money line, I'd be wagering $347.79 to win $193.21.
I'll take home a profit of 93.21 either way.

If I take the teased line, I'd be wagering $396.73 to win $144.27
I'd take home a profit of $44.27 either way, but if Carolina wins by less than a field goal, I'd win $555.27

The sportsbookpal.com line converter says that -4 (EVEN) should translate to a money line of -182 and a +3.5 line of -307, so it looks like the +3.5 (-275) line might have some value to it.

Any thoughts?

[.Alex.]

[ QUOTE ]

If I take the Money line, I'd be wagering $347.79 to win $193.21.
I'll take home a profit of 93.21 either way.


[/ QUOTE ] If you do this, what you've effectively done is risked 100 to win 93.21 on the panthers to win their divisional game. That doesn't seem like a smart play considering the money line was +120 for that game.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
For example's sake, let's say I've got $100 to win $411

If I take the Money line, I'd be wagering $347.79 to win $193.21.
I'll take home a profit of 93.21 either way.

If I take the teased line, I'd be wagering $396.73 to win $144.27
I'd take home a profit of $44.27 either way, but if Carolina wins by less than a field goal, I'd win $555.27
...
Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]
On this aspect, your key number is how often 4 point underdogs win by less than 3. Since the middle attempt has $48.94 less in guaranteed cash, but can win $462.06 more if it hits big, you need Carolina to win by exactly 1 or 2 points more than 10% of the time for positive EV. A quick look at the sportsbookpal database says that in the 545 games that had a spread between 3.5 and 4.5, only 3.3% of them resulted in what you need. The sample size is small, but not that small, so the middle probably is NOT the better hedge.

However this ignores the +3.5 (-275) line, so it doesn't end the discussion, just casts doubt on one of the options.

[legend42]

It wasn't just that I thought Seattle was overvalued, but also that the Bears were overvalued there as well, making it a better bet on Carolina at that point. At this point, I'm not sure Seattle is overvalued.

I don't really get you here. Their league MVP is dinged, they looked shaky against an anemic Skins team, but their stock has gone UP in your estimation?

Is it impossible to make another +EV bet on Seattle, just because I've got one side picked already?

It's not impossible, but at these prices, they're certainly not both +EV. The future bet was heavily tied to Carolina winning in Seattle, and I assume you knew that. If you've changed your mind or have cold feet, that's okay, but just know that you're contradicting yourself.

What did you think the SEA/CAR line would be? If you thought Seattle would be favored by more, then your +411 future price was too low. If you thought they'd be favored by less, then why would you want to bet on them?

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
It wasn't just that I thought Seattle was overvalued, but also that the Bears were overvalued there as well, making it a better bet on Carolina at that point. At this point, I'm not sure Seattle is overvalued.

I don't really get you here. Their league MVP is dinged, they looked shaky against an anemic Skins team, but their stock has gone UP in your estimation?

Is it impossible to make another +EV bet on Seattle, just because I've got one side picked already?

It's not impossible, but at these prices, they're certainly not both +EV. The future bet was heavily tied to Carolina winning in Seattle, and I assume you knew that. If you've changed your mind or have cold feet, that's okay, but just know that you're contradicting yourself.

What did you think the SEA/CAR line would be? If you thought Seattle would be favored by more, then your +411 future price was too low. If you thought they'd be favored by less, then why would you want to bet on them?

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Well, I guess I really don't know what I'm saying. Again, I'm a noob bettor here. Originally I thought that while the Seahawks had the best chance of taking the NFC, I thought that both they and Chicago were overvalued enough that Carolina at +411 was a good wager.

Now, with Seattle winning, I still think they have the best shot at winning the NFC. I guess it's just a question of whether or not it's a +EV bet at the price I'm getting.

Either way, this is what I've decided to do. I'm going to let the Carolina bet ride as is. I'm not exposed that much, and while I like guaranteed money, I think I still like my odds here. As someone pointed out, taking the sure money would have been like risking $100 to win $93 for Carolina to win their division game. The money line (which I did take also) for that game was +120, so I guess it's a parlay of sorts. The win from the division game is paying for this bet I suppose. That's probably not the right way to think about it, but oh well.

I'm going to try to tease Seattle as part of another small teaser so that if the Seahawks do win, then I'll still have a shot at making some money back, but doing so just because of hedging the Panthers wager isn't why I'm doing it now.