Is fold on sixth totally obvious?

[lstream]

Villain is pretty loose, but damn that third 8.

7 Card Stud High ($10/$20), Ante $1, Bring-In $3 (converter (http://j.1asphost.com/greenage))

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif___completes
Hero: 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif___brings-in___folds
Seat 6: xx xx T/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 9/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds

4th Street - (4.00 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif___checks
Hero: 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif___checks
Seat 4: xx xx 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___checks

5th Street - (2.00 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___folds
Hero: 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif___bets

6th Street - (4.00 BB)

Hero: 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___???
Seat 4: xx xx 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif___bets

[beta1607]

I am folding here. Why draw in a small pot to a hand that very possibly won't be any good if you make it?

[lstream]

Did you notice this was an open ended SF draw?

[knoll]

Depends if you feel like gambling. Live open-ended str/flush draw? I almost always throw in one bet to catch.

JMO - Knoll

[knoll]

Think you missed something here, look at his cards a bit more closely...

[blumpkin]

Wow! You have two outs if he's full! Congrats!

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow! You have two outs if he's full! Congrats!

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I might knowingly draw with incorrect odds to a straight flush draw... They just don't come around soon enough..

what do you fish think about raising 5th?

[iamastud]

Raising on 5th seems like the appropiate play. You will still likely be faced with dilemma on 6th since he will likely not fold, but on 5th, your hand has great potential and if he did not hit anything on 6th, nor yourself, he will likely check it to you. I like the raise potential alot on 5th.

[benwood]

I think the 5th.st.raise is a very good play.

It's technically correct to fold on 6th,imo.If he had 2 diamonds in the hole he would probably bet on 4th.This increases the chance of him being full now.But I would still draw to the straight flush for the fun of it.

[beta1607]

No, I am pretty sure I am not missing anything. There are exactly two card in the deck I will be happy if I catch and generally speaking drawing to two-ish outs in a 4 BB pot is a bad play.

[beta1607]

I like the idea of raising 5th a lot, it seems like half the cards in the deck help you at this point and you will be in a good place to either take a free card or bet on 6th depending on how the boards develop.

[frappeboy]

Is this supposed to be a question?

[Andy B]

In the heat of battle, I’d say, “that guy has open trips and the pot is small,” and fold. Since you do have a big draw and the other guy is loose, I thought I’d look at this a little more closely.

Let's assume that the other guy has only the three Eights. You've seen 17 cards. Of the remaining 35, seven clubs, two Sevens, three Deuces, and the King of spades give you a hand that beats the other guy's board. That's 13 cards, so it's a little less than 2:1 against your hitting a hand that will beat the other guy's trips.

Of course, the other guy can also improve. He has two Fives and an Eight, as well as whatever his hole cards are. Some of those are live and some aren't. Depending on his hole cards, he may have 6-9 outs to improve. So it’s about 4:1 against him hitting something that beats almost all of your made hands.

So if you assume that the other guy started with random unpaired hole cards, it’s about (13/35)*(28/35) or around 30% that you’ll win this hand.

But wait, this guy may be loose, but he probably didn’t start with absolutely nothing. If he didn’t start with a pair, then he likely started with a three-flush. If that’s the case, he has a higher flush draw than yours. If he happens to hit an Ace-high flush, you’re back to drawing to only two outs. If he has a flush draw and trips, he probably has about as many outs to improve as you do. When you both improve, he will make the better hand most of the time.

Since sometimes his flush will beat yours and sometimes yours will beat his, and since you will make a straight flush to beat his hand, we turn to twodimes. I figure that the worst-case scenario is that the other guy has A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif in the hole. These are completely live as full house outs, and his flush will usually beat yours. Plugging these into twodimes, we get the other guy as winning .769 to your .231. Best-case scenario is that he has 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif--a couple of small dead cards. In this case he’s winning .704 to your .296. Most of the time, it’s going to be somewhere in the middle. While we’d prefer to have the mean of this range, I’m not going to take the time to figure it out. The midpoint of this range is .736/.264, and that’s close enough for our purposes.

Say he started with 765. In that case, he’s .719 to your .281.

Without knowing what this guy’s range of limping-first-in-and-then-calling-the-completion hands is, I’m guessing it includes most small pairs and most three-flushes. What the hell, we’re doing laundry so let’s go through the possibilities. He can have:

TT: 3 ways
77: 3 ways
66: 1 way
44: 1 way (yuck)
33: 1 way (double yuck)
22: 6 ways
Split Fives: 66 ways
76: 9 ways
Some random three-flush: 36 ways

He’d have to be pretty optimistic to come in with pocket Nines when both other Nines are face-up.

Adding all of this together, I have 126 possible hands for the other guy. Taking the weighted average of lstream’s expectations, I get:

Other guy has full house or better: 80 ways * .0571 = 4.57
Other guy has a flush draw: 36 ways * .264 = 9.5
Other guy has 76 in the hole: 9 ways * .281 = 2.53

(4.47 + 9.5 + 2.53) / 126 = .13

It’s more than 6:1 against you. Considering that you’re probably going to have to call a river bet, you’re getting about 3:1 effective odds.

I didn’t include stuff like 345 and QJ5. These are hands that you’re in OK shape against, but I don’t think he’s going to have those hands nearly often enough to swing this to a call.

Now if you do hit the straight flush and the other guy has a full house or quads, you have some implied odds. If this were a live game, where there is no cap heads-up, you could maybe take his entire stack. It still isn’t worth calling, though. If this were a jackpot game, you might want to play for it.

For those of you who would call just because you’ve never made a straight flush, well, you’re probably not costing yourself all that much. If that thrill is worth $4 to you (a little less, actually), then more power to you. Just realize that pro poker players make their livings off of people who concern themselves more with possibilities than probabilities. Five years ago, I probably would have called just for the straight flush chance, but having hit a few, it’s just not that exciting anymore. I still haven’t hit any playing live high-only stud (in over 2000 hours)….You guys all play hold'em, right? And in this situation, lstream could technically hit his straight flush and still lose!

Winning poker isn't about good hands--it's about good situations. If you want to play a game where hitting a big hand is rewarded, take up video poker.

What the hell could the J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif guy have had?

[lstream]

Holy smokes Andy, what a post. Thanks.