Broncos -3.5 on sportsbook

[asb165]

And I have my $50 free bet from VIP on Pittsburgh to win the SB at 14-1

[DougOzzzz]

-3 -121 (at Pinnacle) is better.

[BobJoeJim]

If you like Pittsburgh in this game I'd bet it now, if you like Denver I'd wait. A poll on ESPN.com (which ought to represent the public money pretty well) has 47% of people saying Pitt will win close and 11% more saying Pitt wins big, with only 32% saying Denver close and 10% saying Denver big. Given that the public seems to be taking Pittsburgh straight up, I'd expect them to take Pittsburgh with points too.

[DougOzzzz]

The public also loved NE. The line didn't move much, because the sharps with the big money kept it down betting on Denver. It is not so easy to predict line movements.

[craig]

Another reason the lines haven't moved much in some of these games is that they all revolved around key numbers. The books don't want to risk getting middled, so it is just better to move the amount people have to lay.

For example, when TEN and STL played in the Superbowl, Scucci (one of the managers at the Stardust) said, "Let's just open the game at 7. If we start at 6.5 it will move to 7 anyways. It will take $1M to move us off of this number."

craig

[Gramps]

It's up to -122 and -3, but I'd still jump all over it early if Denver is your pick. It'll probably be a cheap 1/2 point you picked up after the line settles at 3.5 (if that's what it does, of course).

The early Carolina line at Pinnacle went from +4.5 and -102 to -111 in like 5 minutes. Probably another valuable 1/2 point when (if) the line settles at 4.

[BobJoeJim]

I don't expect the line to be that likely to move, but I was thinking the juice probably would, ala Chicago/Carolina this week.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't expect the line to be that likely to move, but I was thinking the juice probably would, ala Chicago/Carolina this week.

[/ QUOTE ]

Same thing in my book. The bookies as Craig said are reluctant to move off a key number such as 3 (for fear of getting middled).

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't expect the line to be that likely to move, but I was thinking the juice probably would, ala Chicago/Carolina this week.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it would be tough for the line to move. Right now it is good. If you like the -3.5 you can spend the extra money and get it to 3 (which the books will love). If it moves to 3, then you could buy to 2.5 (which the books won't like very much, because the books risk getting middled). This playoff lines are much sharper due to the amount of action compared to the rest of the season.

craig

[DougOzzzz]

Craig - why would the books love buying down to -3 and hate buying down to -2.5? Either way if it lands on 3, it is a soft middle and the book loses.

[craig]

I guess I was thinking if the line moves from 3.5 to 3 (which means that a lot came in on +3.5) and then these same dog bettors get the -2.5 the book would be in trouble.

I can also be ignored right now. I have written quite a bit today and my thought process isn't perfect.

craig

[DougOzzzz]

1

[craig]

So, Doug takes a lot of credit for our site, but he really doesn't do anything. We tell him he does a good job just to make him feel better. Good thing he can't see this.

craig

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
*** You are ignoring this user ***

[/ QUOTE ]

What did you say?

[RacersEdge]

I put a couple units on Denver at -3 and -125. I will at least double this if the line goes to -2.5.