Settlers of Catan

[rinera]

Is it possible to take a game theory approach to this game and find an optimal stragey? If so how should I go about tring to find it?

It is possible for other board games with more inherent chance? Stratego? Monopoly? Axis/Allies?

How about some computer games?

I pretty much believe that the people who are inherantly 'good' at these games (don't play them often,don't think about them much when they do play) are either getting exsessivly lucky or have found some or a very close to optimal strategy for these games...

Just a thought. I don't know if this is even in the right forum!

[Bob Moss]

The key to victory is MOONROCK.

[hmkpoker]

This probably belongs in the "puzzles and other games" forum.

I will say, though, that a lot of the strategy in Settlers lies in politics. We had a group that used to play all the time, and the guy who always won was a big, political loudmouth type who would constantly smooth-talk all the other players into making suicidal deals, and alliances that he would backstab in a heartbeat while enforcing other alliances that he wasn't a part of. Basically, you want to be the table captain.

And yes, you can to some extent take a game theory approach, but game theory deals with small, few-variable game systems while these games have many more variables. It's very hard to delineate the perfect strategy against a rational opponent, and since there's no money in it, there's no reason to do it.

[ianlippert]

I used to work night shift at Home Depot and for about a year we played this game non-stop. Honestly there isnt much strategy to this game, you find the optimal strategy relatively quickly. I'm not sure where game theory comes in, I think settlers is more of a mathematical game. You really learn how/when/where to build that maximizes your production and there isnt much beyond that. Theres the occasional odd strategy like cutting peoples roads off or monopolizing sheep and a sheep port.

Give me Twilight Imperium, thats a real game /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[madnak]

I had a group of friends who played this game a lot. One of them won over half of the time, and he did it using a very simple psychological approach. I wouldn't necessarily recommend it because it was tailored to the group.

If anyone [censored] with this guy, he would destroy them. He would make his single goal for the remainder of the game the elimination of the guy who screwed with him. He would lose, and so would his target. As a result, everybody gave him special treatment to avoid his kamikaze tactic, and he was able to win very frequently.

[hmkpoker]

I'm not a fan of the monopoly/port strategy. It's REALLY hard to be the ONLY one who has sheep, and the resources wasted on building on a port are usually better off being put on a corner where you'll just get the resources you're going to trade for anyway.

[NickMPK]

Threatening mutual destruction is "metagaming" and is considered unethical by some people who are German game afficianados.

I like early city building. Build on a strong wheat/stone intersection, upgrade it to a city as soon as possible, and then your second city will come really soon. Then you can use excess wheat/stone to get the largest army and victory point cards. At some point, you need to stake out another settlement location, but no need to rush.

[KUJustin]

You can't get any victory pts w/ out wheat and you can almost never win w/ out ore.

Own the wheat and ore. Develop cities and development cards. The development cards will disguise the fact that you're winning and keep the pressure off of you. They'll also get you the resources you need to get your roads and two settlements to win.

[hmkpoker]

It all depends on the board. If stone (you call it ore?) and wheat are on big numbers while wood and clay are stiffed, you're going to be building cities before new roads and settlements (which I call roadlements /images/graemlins/smile.gif ) If wood and clay are abundant, many a long road and settlement you will have.

[surftheiop]

I win atleast 60% of the settlers games i play(i atribute this to my opponents not me) , unless the board/resources are prefect i have found it is never a good idea to go for longest road as a main plan. Although if one of the resources touching my wheat/rock happens to be brick and i have a VP in my cards i like to keep myself within 2 - 4 of longest road incase hit a lucky rolls / get roadbuilding because people usaully dont seem to worry about the 3 point jump you could make in one turn

[lehighguy]

WOOD FOR SHEEP!!!!!

[rinera]

I understand that it would be a very difficult situation/game to anyalis from a game theroy prospective, but isn't it the same for chess. The Open/Begging game and End game are all very well understood. Middle game has concepts that are very well developed but not thoroughly finished interms of leading inexplicably to a garanteed end....

This is why I should go to a school with game theory as a coarse...

[baggins]

couple quick points of advice from somebody who has only lost a handful of times (and won my first 8 straight games i ever played):

Longest road is a fool's game. avoid it, and encourage those who are pursuing it to pursue it in light of other things. even offer to trade them the resources they need for LR so you can get the resources you need.

development cards are where it's at. mainly because they have victory points that can be hidden. some people catch on to this strategy, but there's nothing they can do even if they know your facedown card is a VP. also, though, there are very handy cards in the stack. monopoly and year of plenty are nice. road building can come in handy if you need to get to a prime spot for a third settlement.

play the numbers, obviously. but make sure you have a steady source of ore, wheat, and sheep.

build cities early. the increase in production over your opponents is crucial. also, just like in tourney poker, the mroe resources you have, the less they are worth to you, but the more they are worth to your opponent. so, if you have a greater production than your opponents due to early city building, then keep that in mind when you trade.

deals/trading are crucial to this game. helping 2 opponents who are battling over LR by supplying both sides with brick and wood while building up your cities and buying development cards is a good way to go. also, be sure to often ask for 2:1 trades (and offer them too, if you can!) from your opponents. if you have the only real source of wheat, then when your wheat comes in, and people want to trade, make them give you 2 or 3 resource cards in trade.

always analyze where you build initially. and not only where you build, but the best places to build besides your spot. know which places you're likely to build, based on the order you get to place your settlements. if you scope a cool port/trade opportunity, don't snag it right away. build inland and build out to the port.

get Cities & Knights.