View Full Version : Probability of 28 hands in a row without a pair or an ace?
idrinkcoors
01-14-2006, 04:29 PM
Does anyone know what this probability is? Happened to me last night, and I thought I remembered reading in Super System about not catching an ace or a pair after 20 hands to be extremely rare.
Thanks in advance.
The Legend
01-14-2006, 05:03 PM
probability of an Ace (not including AA) .012*12
probabliity of a pocket pair, .0045*13
probability of neither 1-(.012*12+.0045*13)
probability of neither for 28 hands is last answer to the 28th power
.00177198, or 1/564.34
ChromePony
01-14-2006, 05:08 PM
lets see if i can tackle this one,
the probability of getting a single ace is 4/52 + 48/52*3/51 = .13122
the probability of a pocket pair is 3/51 = .05882
so the probability of getting neither for 28 hands:
[ 1 - (.13122 + .05882) ]^28
[ .8099 ]^28 = .002737 or .2737%
so yeah not very likely
there is also a strong chance i messed this up since im new at the probability thing, if bruce wants to step up and put me in my place that would be cool.
EDIT: oops /images/graemlins/frown.gif
fiskebent
01-14-2006, 06:54 PM
Probability of not getting an ace as your first card is 48/52. Probability of not getting an ace or a card to match your first card as your second card is 44/41 (7 cards to dodge).
So probability of neither an ace or a pair is 79.638%
To have that happen 28 hands in a row is 79.638% ^ 28 or 0.1703613% (1 in 587).
shermanash
01-15-2006, 01:08 AM
to take this a step further, what are the odds that this will happen AT least once (no ace pair in 25 hands) over a, say 500 hand session.. also i don't care about the answer but i would like to how to figure this stuff out.
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