Anyone interested in splitting the zero-risk-arbitrage BetAlerts?

[Jesse Kidd]

Anyone interested in splitting the BetAlerts on ZRA.com?

[craig]

Is this spam? I can't tell at all.

craig

[ImNew]

not spam, but arbitrage is a waste of time. Too much effort for too little money.

[Jesse Kidd]

Craig,

Not spam, sorry if it looked like it.

You really don't think its worth it? Shoot, if I could get 2%-3% returns even per week, that seems pretty good (I play poker for a living, so I'm near a computer anyways). Is this really just a load of crap?

Jesse

[Mr_J]

It's not a load of crap, as you can make decent money off it, but it's no way to get rich. In short, there are better methods in making money at sportsbetting. This is a good way to start though, particuarly if you are scalping bonuses at the same time.

[BobJoeJim]

I'm confused as to what the "BetAlerts on ZRA.com" are, or why you want someone to split them...

[WaimanaloSlim]

I actually saw a sampling, and many of the arbitrage opportunities seem to come from online British sportsbooks, most of which don't allow American residents to open accounts with them.

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
arbitrage is a waste of time. Too much effort for too little money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. Arbitrage (scalping) is the way that many successful sports bettors make a LOT of money. You have to have a decent-sized bankroll to do it, but it is clearly not a waste of time.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
arbitrage is a waste of time. Too much effort for too little money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. Arbitrage (scalping) is the way that many successful sports bettors make a LOT of money. You have to have a decent-sized bankroll to do it, but it is clearly not a waste of time.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've been thinking about this a bit, and doing some math on it. The data I'm missing is this: How often can you find scalps if you take the time to look, how big do they tend to be, and how many books do you need to have in order to make those frequencies the case?

My reasoning is essentially as follows: If your scalp is on a spread (rather than a moneyline) then you have about a fifty percent chance of winning, and you have to risk $2.10 to win, so an 8 cent scalp has an EV of about 2 cents per dollar in your bankroll, if you put everything on it in the right ratio. An average 2% return, if you could find just one a week, could cause your bankroll to grow very quickly indeed, but is that plausible?

Also, since scalps often disappear quickly, it seems like you wouldn't tend to have time to put more money into your account on the appropriate book before betting, you'd just have to ride with however much you have available, which means the lesser of your two accounts on the two books. So if you're only betting scalps you'd want to keep your bankroll evenly distributed among your books. Therefore if you have five books, each with 20% of your roll on them, then that 8 cent scalp earns its average of 2% of only the 40% of your roll on the two involved books, meaning less than 1% return on your bankroll, which becomes much less exponential.

So average scalp size, how often you can find them, and how many books you use are the determining variables in how profitable betting scalps is (as opposed to, say, putting your money in a mutual fund or something, and generating some minimal revenue with no work at all).

Anyone have any numbers for me?

[Jesse Kidd]

I don't know if putting websites is appropriate for the forum (I am in no way affiliated with this site), so I'll leave it to the moderator to remove this if it's not acceptable. The program I was referring to is on www.zero-risk-arbitrage.com (http://www.zero-risk-arbitrage.com) and seems to have gotten some good reviews through my searching of google. If the site is to be believed, 2-3% arbs would be available quite frequently. I have a bankroll of around $8000-$10000 to play around with this, and I think it would be worth it if the product is as advertised.

The main problem - The poster above referenced European sportsbooks that do not allow US bettors. This is certainly a problem, but I was able to make a list of 25 books that the website uses that do accept them. I would have to filter the arbs down to my sites, so I wouldn't have as many opportunities as others. I still think I would have enough to show a solid profit, but this will be what the free trial is for.

You don't want to be placing max bets, or anything else that could eventually get your betting max limited or red flag your account, so I would think $500-$750 per account would be fine, with a good amount of floating capital in Neteller. The exception was pointed out above, that you'd always want to max out the bonuses as well. Some of the arbs only last for 5 minutes or so, so the quicker you can get the email, and make the bets, the better, obviously.

Jesse

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
arbitrage is a waste of time. Too much effort for too little money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. Arbitrage (scalping) is the way that many successful sports bettors make a LOT of money. You have to have a decent-sized bankroll to do it, but it is clearly not a waste of time.

[/ QUOTE ]

And if you treat it like a long term mutual fund and not withdraw your profits, the compound interest would make this even less of a waste of time.

There are so many ways to arb/middle and to not take advantage of it (while bonus hustling) is a mortal sin of gambling. It is almost as bad as not doubling with an 11 against a 6 in blackjack.

craig

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
less than 1% return on your bankroll

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is the thing that most people don't realize -- a 1% return on your bankroll in less than one week is ABSOLUTELY F'ING AMAZING.

If you make one scalp per week at that rate over a year, that is a 67% compounded annual return. Do you have any idea how many investors would kill to make even a 20% annual return on their investments in the stock market?

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
less than 1% return on your bankroll

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is the thing that most people don't realize -- a 1% return on your bankroll in less than one week is ABSOLUTELY F'ING AMAZING.

If you make one scalp per week at that rate over a year, that is a 67% compounded annual return. Do you have any idea how many investors would kill to make even a 20% annual return on their investments in the stock market?

[/ QUOTE ]
Absotively. Which brings me back to my original questions, how likely is it that you can find one 8 cent scalp a week, over 5 books? What if you have 10 books? How about 5 cent scalps, or 11 centers? And so on...

[20Five]

if i had more money to put into such an operation i dont see any reason why i wouldnt.. this is the best way to do it for sure.

[Caldarooni]

Why settle for 1% per week when you can get a 90% return by betting your entire bankroll on the Broncos?? /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Seriously, I don't know that such a service is worthwhile for the US bettor who has other free options available.

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
Why settle for 1% per week when you can get a 90% return by betting your entire bankroll on the Broncos?? /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Seriously, I don't know that such a service is worthwhile for the US bettor who has other free options available.

[/ QUOTE ]


TRAPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[PropPlayer]

I'm pretty sure that if you compounded 2% ever week on a $5000 bankroll you would end up with $1,000,000 in about 5 years.

[craig]

Obviously a waste of time as someone has stated above.

craig

[JohnnyHumongous]

Is it actually possible to arbitrage with large bankrolls? Can one put 50-100K into a scalp easily? I guess you have to have the mobility to move money into a scalp very quickly. Is it feasible to keep 50K on neteller for this and move it in and out of sports betting sites as required for the purposes of arbitrage?

[ImNew]

It's great if it is INDEED a 2% compound interest on your bankroll every week, I'm just sharing my 2c. If it was that great, no one would get a real job.

Just try it, if you get rich, that's great. But I've been there and decided to get away from it because I don't have a big bankroll and the time for it. Yes, you can make some money here and there no risk blah blah blah but it's just not as easy as it sounds. Think why people provide Arbs service to average Joe out there, do you honestly think they're helping you to get COMPOUND INTEREST on your bankroll every week?

[NoSoup4U]

[ QUOTE ]
Can one put 50-100K into a scalp easily?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. You are limited by the size of the bet that the books will accept. If the scalp is a college BB money-line, this can easily be 1,000 or less.

Many arbs wind up being executed with an exchange on one side and that means that the amount available to bet againt will vary significantly.

[JohnnyHumongous]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can one put 50-100K into a scalp easily?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. You are limited by the size of the bet that the books will accept. If the scalp is a college BB money-line, this can easily be 1,000 or less.

Many arbs wind up being executed with an exchange on one side and that means that the amount available to bet againt will vary significantly.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what we're saying is it wouldn't be possible to turn $5000 into $1 million at 2% per week (as someone else in the thread said) because you're limited to small bets for scalps? Are there some scalps that can be pulled off with $100K? I thought people place like multi-million dollar bets on certain games, say NFL or world cup soccer...

[ZjustinISaLOSER]

I am going to create a new post with the appropriate subject, but why do we need a service. Why not jus create a thread where people post the oppurtunites and which sites they found them on each week. We can all share eachothers knowledge making the searching time very minimal.... look for this thread, hopefully people will take it seriously and it could make it very easy

[tech]

As Ed Miller is fond of saying, this thread has now reached a critical mass of misinformation. Scalping is not good (other than bonus whoring) for small bankrolls because the transaction fees of moving money around can kill you. Similarly, for very large bankrolls it is not practical either because it is hard to get enough money down to make a difference. But for a medium bankroll it can be quite efficient.

Everyone who says it is a waste of time either (a) has not done it or (b) is terrible at it. Last year I put my whole bankroll into scalps on props on the NCAA tournament. I made a risk-free 10% return on my whole bankroll in four weeks. What a waste of time. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[craig]

To add to what Tech has said, with smaller bankrolls you are much better off taking the "rogue" line at one of the square books (PM for list) instead of going for the "scalp". Generally these "rogue" lines offer more EV, especially once you add the signup and reload bonuses in. As an example, lets say you go to Pinnacle and see Team X +6.5 -107, but then go to "square shop" and see Team X +7.5 -110. Well, we know that PIN has some of the sharpest lines, so getting the extra point over a key number is huge EV. In fact, by getting the +7.5 -110 you will win approx. 6% more times than if you had +6.5.

craig