Performify
01-13-2006, 01:52 PM
Again a long post because I’m picking every game. If you're having trouble with the formatting, my picks posted on my blog at http://performify.com are probably easier to read.
Last week I was right on with both of my "significant" picks and missed on both of my "i'm not so sure" picks for a great weekend. This week the big story is the fact that the home team in this round is 40-10 (80%) since the playoffs were expanded to 12 teams in 1990. The home teams went 4-0 SU in 2004 but only 2-2 in 2003. Will that strong trend continue? I think so - i expect to see one road upset at most, and I believe even one upset is not a high probability.
Results from the wildcard round:
2-2 ATS, 3-1 SU. 1-0 on Game of the Week. 1-0 on postseason teasers.
Postseason Results: +8.1165 units
Final NFL regular season record: 10-7 on Game of the Week, +21.5 units as posted
Final NFL regular season record: 33-35 overall, +14.5 units for the year on all posted plays.
Washington Redskins (+9.5) at Seattle Seahawks (O/U: 41)
The Redskins have won six games in a row (including last week's victory over Tampa Bay in the first wildcard round). Meanwhile Seattle had won 11 consecutive games before losing a meaningless game to Green Bay in the regular-season finale. Washington feature's one of the NFL's best defenses (#9 overall, #13 v. rush #10 v. pass). Washington put up decent offensive numbers during the year, finishing 11th in total offense (7th in rushing) but their offense has been anemic since Portis got banged up and hasn't been running at 100%. Seattle brings in a decent defense (tied for #16 overall, #5 v. rush but only #25 v. pass). However the Seattle defense actually allowed fewer points per game than the Redskins (16.9 ppg compared to 18.3 ppg).
Seattle represents a modern, truly balanced NFL team. They have a strong rushing attack, a solid passing attack, and a proficient defense. Not a lot of people know that Seattle's front four (led by ends Grant Wistrom and Bryce Fisher) had an NFL-best 50 sacks: out-sacking the much more heralded Chicago and Carolina front fours. Look for Seattle to run the ball to the right all day: Redskins defensive end Renaldo Wynn is out (broke his forearm last week) and will be replaced by Demetric Evans. Evans is an OK end but lacks the impact of Wynn. Washington does have solid run-stopping linebackers who attack the line of scrimmage.
The biggest defensive weakness for the Redskins is their secondary: Cornerback Shawn Springs was unable to play last week (groin injury), but will play Saturday but will likely not be at 100%. Rookie cornerback Carlos Rogers and nickel back Walt Harris are dinged up, too. Seattle of course has a potent passing attack with Engram, Jackson and Jurevicius, and they should have a big game against the damaged Washington secondary. The balanced Seattle offense will try to get the passing game active to keep Washington from being able to over-commit to the run. On defense, Seattle returns both starting cornerbacks (Marcus Trufant and Andre Dyson) from injuries: both will play but neither will be 100%. Seattle's defense will depend on getting pressure on Redskins QB Mark Brunell to keep the heat off the Seahawks' secondary.
Seattle is clearly the better, more balanced team here. I don't believe there is any way that Washington can win this game outright, so the question is can they cover the large spread. With their top-ranked rushing defense I believe Seattle can short-circut the Washington offense, loading up against the run and forcing Washington to go to the air. The Redskins run max protect blocking schemes, so the game will ultimately come down to how long the banged-up Seattle corners can hang with Santana Moss: can they cover him long enough for the blitz to pressure Brunell, or will they get burned for a couple big TDs?
Prediction: Seattle 24, Washington 14. Seattle covers the -9.5. Game goes under. Good game to tease Seattle and the Under, but you've got to lay the extra juice to take this down to -3 or -2.5 to make it worthwhile.
New England Patriots (+3) at Denver Broncos (O/U: 44)
The big story in this matchup, besides watching the general public jumping on the Patriots bandwagon en masse, is the late-season resurgence of the Patriots defense. In the first eight games of the season, New England allowed 128.8 yards per game. However, since the return of DE Richard Seymour, linebacker Tedy Bruschi and other notables on New England`s defense, the Patriots have sliced that number in half. In the second half of the season, New England has held its opponents to just 68.6 yards on the ground – which the best of any team in the second half of the season. However, take a look at who the Patriots got to beat up on in that second half of the season: the New York Jets (twice), the Miami Dolphins, and the Buffalo Bills. Those teams finished 31st, 20th and 12th respectively in rushing offense. So while you've seen a strong resurgence in the Patriots defense, and they're certainly improved with the return of some of their starters, they're still not that impressive.
Denver features a strong offense (#5 overall) powered by a potent running attack (#2 in the NFL behind the Falcons) and a mediocre passing game (ranked 18th in the NFL) designed to protect the ball. Denver brings in the #2 NFL's rushing defense but only the #29 passing defense (ranked #15th overall). New England ended the season #7 in total offense, #24 rushing and #2 passing. On defense the patriots are only #26 overall (#8 vs rush, #31 vs pass) despite their late-season defensive success.
Denver, Broncos QB Jake Plummer in particular, has protected the ball all season. The Broncos turned the ball over an NFL-low 16 times this year. The Patriots have feasted on - or maybe depended upon - turnovers in their impressive postseason streak: They are plus-21 in turnover margin in their 10-game postseason winning streak. Meanwhile the Pats fumbled the ball four times last week (but recovered them all themselves).
While New England has a very impressive passing game, their running game is already anemic and faces one of the best rush defenses in the NFL. In return, the Pats run defense looks good on paper but is over-rated due to their late-season matchups with weak rushing teams. Denver will be able to run nickel and even dime defense schemes to help limit the New England passing attack, especially if they can build an early lead.
I think the linesmakers are loving this game. My system shows Denver winning this game easily, but the linesmakers knew they could hang Denver -3 and people would just pound the Patroits getting the points. This game is also a fade-the-public-perception play, with Wagerline listing the game 65%-35% for the Pats, and Sportsbook.com shows a strong disparity in the money distribution there.
Prediction: Denver 27, New England 17. Game of the Week. No over/under play.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+9½) at Indianapolis Colts (O/U: 47.5)
I don't have a ton of insight to this game, and my system hates either side. So i'm not going to spend much time on the writeup.
Indy is the NFL's #3 offense, #16 rushing and #3 in passing. They have a speedy, impressive defense but are ranked in the middle of the pack at #11 overall, #16 vs rush and #15 vs pass. Pittsburgh has the NFL's #15 offense (tied with Jacksonville) and is strongly focused on the running game: #5 in rushing but #24 in passing. Pittsburgh has a strong defense, #4 overall with #3 vs the run and #16 vs the pass. The Colts are 1-5 overall against Pittsburgh coach Bill Cowher, but their win came in this year's regular-season meeting at the RCA Dome, in which the Colts embarrassed the Steelers 26-7 in Indianapolis on Monday night in Week 12.
The Steelers will blitz frequently to try to pressure Manning in to poor throws and try to force turnovers. The Steelers will try to pound the ball on the ground to wear down the clock, while the Colts will try to stuff the run and force Pitt QB Ben Roethlisberger to the air. My system doesn't like either side of this matchup, but I'm going with the Colts. There appears to be a surprising amount of money taking the points: Wagerline shows 56%-44% for Pitt and the points. I don't think many people believe the Steelers can win, but they believe that the spread is too wide. I'm sorry, I just don't see this game being that close: with a strong, quick and balanced defense facing a one-dimensional offense, I think Indy will be able to stuff the run, build an early lead and then force the Steelers to the air for the rest of the game. The Colts were 7-1 this season at home, and with the advantage of home field + the week off, I think they roll easily.
Prediction: Colts 28, Steelers 17. Indy opens 21-7 but then lets the Steelers back in a little late. Predicted to finish under.
Carolina Panthers (+2.5) at Chicago Bears (O/U: 30)
This should be the best game of the weekend. #2 defense (Chicago) against #3 defense in Carolina. Strong rushing attack in Chicago against the NFL's 4th ranked rush defense. Strong passing threat in standout Carolina WR Steve Smith, against the fearsome Chicago pass defense (#5 in the NFL). The triumphant return of Bears QB Rex Grossman versus the playoff-tested Jake Delhomme. Freezing temperatures and the wind off Lake Michigan versus the warm-weather Panthers.
The money has been hammering down on Carolina this week, driving the line down from the open of Carolina +3 to the current Carolina +2.5 in most places. The under has also been bet down, it opened at a ridiculously low 31 and then got dropped down another point by the heavy action.
The Panthers are playing very well lately, are playoff tested (they were in the Superbowl only two years ago after all) and play very well on the road. But Carolina's recent success has come on the strength of establishing the run, and they're not going to be able to establish the run against the tenacious Chicago defense. In the last meeting in Chicago, the Panthers were held to just 55 yards on the ground and lost 13-3. When the Bears shut down the Carolina running game, they were able to relentlessly blitz Delhomme, and sacked him eight times in the game. Chicago will come out and look to do the exact same thing here: they can create pressure with only four and five pass rushers and will be able to drop the rest back in coverage. I suggest putting all four d-backs on Steve Smith and letting Urlacher cover the rest of the field.
I think this line is pretty aptly set: my system strongly predicts Chicago -3 in this game, and with the line getting hammered down to Chicago -2.5 I think its a valuable play. If you're already on Carolina +3 I don't think you're in bad shape, and some people were able to secure (or buy up to) Carolina +3.5 which I think has good value as well. This is also a public perception play: the game is 63%-37% on Wagerline and significantly one-sided on Carolina on Sportsbook.com. Ultimately though, with Carolina's edge in forcing turnovers and the inexperienced QB factor of Grossman, I can't recommend this as a very strong play.
Prediction: Chicago 17, Carolina 14.
Tease of the Week: Seattle -2.5 Under 48
Requires laying the larger juice for the seven-point teaser, but moving this game inside the three and under 48 is a great place to be, in my opinion. Expected rain and winds should keep the total down, and Seattle by a fieldgoal is a close to a "lock" as you can get in my opinion.
Plays for the week, for the record:
Seattle -9.5 (-110) : half unit
Denver -3 (-112) : five units (game of the week)
Colts -10 (+105) : half unit
Bears -2.5 (-110 : two units
Tease: Seattle -2.5 Under 48 : 3 units risked to win 2.5 units
Tease: Chicago +4 Seattle -2.5 : to win three units
Last week I was right on with both of my "significant" picks and missed on both of my "i'm not so sure" picks for a great weekend. This week the big story is the fact that the home team in this round is 40-10 (80%) since the playoffs were expanded to 12 teams in 1990. The home teams went 4-0 SU in 2004 but only 2-2 in 2003. Will that strong trend continue? I think so - i expect to see one road upset at most, and I believe even one upset is not a high probability.
Results from the wildcard round:
2-2 ATS, 3-1 SU. 1-0 on Game of the Week. 1-0 on postseason teasers.
Postseason Results: +8.1165 units
Final NFL regular season record: 10-7 on Game of the Week, +21.5 units as posted
Final NFL regular season record: 33-35 overall, +14.5 units for the year on all posted plays.
Washington Redskins (+9.5) at Seattle Seahawks (O/U: 41)
The Redskins have won six games in a row (including last week's victory over Tampa Bay in the first wildcard round). Meanwhile Seattle had won 11 consecutive games before losing a meaningless game to Green Bay in the regular-season finale. Washington feature's one of the NFL's best defenses (#9 overall, #13 v. rush #10 v. pass). Washington put up decent offensive numbers during the year, finishing 11th in total offense (7th in rushing) but their offense has been anemic since Portis got banged up and hasn't been running at 100%. Seattle brings in a decent defense (tied for #16 overall, #5 v. rush but only #25 v. pass). However the Seattle defense actually allowed fewer points per game than the Redskins (16.9 ppg compared to 18.3 ppg).
Seattle represents a modern, truly balanced NFL team. They have a strong rushing attack, a solid passing attack, and a proficient defense. Not a lot of people know that Seattle's front four (led by ends Grant Wistrom and Bryce Fisher) had an NFL-best 50 sacks: out-sacking the much more heralded Chicago and Carolina front fours. Look for Seattle to run the ball to the right all day: Redskins defensive end Renaldo Wynn is out (broke his forearm last week) and will be replaced by Demetric Evans. Evans is an OK end but lacks the impact of Wynn. Washington does have solid run-stopping linebackers who attack the line of scrimmage.
The biggest defensive weakness for the Redskins is their secondary: Cornerback Shawn Springs was unable to play last week (groin injury), but will play Saturday but will likely not be at 100%. Rookie cornerback Carlos Rogers and nickel back Walt Harris are dinged up, too. Seattle of course has a potent passing attack with Engram, Jackson and Jurevicius, and they should have a big game against the damaged Washington secondary. The balanced Seattle offense will try to get the passing game active to keep Washington from being able to over-commit to the run. On defense, Seattle returns both starting cornerbacks (Marcus Trufant and Andre Dyson) from injuries: both will play but neither will be 100%. Seattle's defense will depend on getting pressure on Redskins QB Mark Brunell to keep the heat off the Seahawks' secondary.
Seattle is clearly the better, more balanced team here. I don't believe there is any way that Washington can win this game outright, so the question is can they cover the large spread. With their top-ranked rushing defense I believe Seattle can short-circut the Washington offense, loading up against the run and forcing Washington to go to the air. The Redskins run max protect blocking schemes, so the game will ultimately come down to how long the banged-up Seattle corners can hang with Santana Moss: can they cover him long enough for the blitz to pressure Brunell, or will they get burned for a couple big TDs?
Prediction: Seattle 24, Washington 14. Seattle covers the -9.5. Game goes under. Good game to tease Seattle and the Under, but you've got to lay the extra juice to take this down to -3 or -2.5 to make it worthwhile.
New England Patriots (+3) at Denver Broncos (O/U: 44)
The big story in this matchup, besides watching the general public jumping on the Patriots bandwagon en masse, is the late-season resurgence of the Patriots defense. In the first eight games of the season, New England allowed 128.8 yards per game. However, since the return of DE Richard Seymour, linebacker Tedy Bruschi and other notables on New England`s defense, the Patriots have sliced that number in half. In the second half of the season, New England has held its opponents to just 68.6 yards on the ground – which the best of any team in the second half of the season. However, take a look at who the Patriots got to beat up on in that second half of the season: the New York Jets (twice), the Miami Dolphins, and the Buffalo Bills. Those teams finished 31st, 20th and 12th respectively in rushing offense. So while you've seen a strong resurgence in the Patriots defense, and they're certainly improved with the return of some of their starters, they're still not that impressive.
Denver features a strong offense (#5 overall) powered by a potent running attack (#2 in the NFL behind the Falcons) and a mediocre passing game (ranked 18th in the NFL) designed to protect the ball. Denver brings in the #2 NFL's rushing defense but only the #29 passing defense (ranked #15th overall). New England ended the season #7 in total offense, #24 rushing and #2 passing. On defense the patriots are only #26 overall (#8 vs rush, #31 vs pass) despite their late-season defensive success.
Denver, Broncos QB Jake Plummer in particular, has protected the ball all season. The Broncos turned the ball over an NFL-low 16 times this year. The Patriots have feasted on - or maybe depended upon - turnovers in their impressive postseason streak: They are plus-21 in turnover margin in their 10-game postseason winning streak. Meanwhile the Pats fumbled the ball four times last week (but recovered them all themselves).
While New England has a very impressive passing game, their running game is already anemic and faces one of the best rush defenses in the NFL. In return, the Pats run defense looks good on paper but is over-rated due to their late-season matchups with weak rushing teams. Denver will be able to run nickel and even dime defense schemes to help limit the New England passing attack, especially if they can build an early lead.
I think the linesmakers are loving this game. My system shows Denver winning this game easily, but the linesmakers knew they could hang Denver -3 and people would just pound the Patroits getting the points. This game is also a fade-the-public-perception play, with Wagerline listing the game 65%-35% for the Pats, and Sportsbook.com shows a strong disparity in the money distribution there.
Prediction: Denver 27, New England 17. Game of the Week. No over/under play.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+9½) at Indianapolis Colts (O/U: 47.5)
I don't have a ton of insight to this game, and my system hates either side. So i'm not going to spend much time on the writeup.
Indy is the NFL's #3 offense, #16 rushing and #3 in passing. They have a speedy, impressive defense but are ranked in the middle of the pack at #11 overall, #16 vs rush and #15 vs pass. Pittsburgh has the NFL's #15 offense (tied with Jacksonville) and is strongly focused on the running game: #5 in rushing but #24 in passing. Pittsburgh has a strong defense, #4 overall with #3 vs the run and #16 vs the pass. The Colts are 1-5 overall against Pittsburgh coach Bill Cowher, but their win came in this year's regular-season meeting at the RCA Dome, in which the Colts embarrassed the Steelers 26-7 in Indianapolis on Monday night in Week 12.
The Steelers will blitz frequently to try to pressure Manning in to poor throws and try to force turnovers. The Steelers will try to pound the ball on the ground to wear down the clock, while the Colts will try to stuff the run and force Pitt QB Ben Roethlisberger to the air. My system doesn't like either side of this matchup, but I'm going with the Colts. There appears to be a surprising amount of money taking the points: Wagerline shows 56%-44% for Pitt and the points. I don't think many people believe the Steelers can win, but they believe that the spread is too wide. I'm sorry, I just don't see this game being that close: with a strong, quick and balanced defense facing a one-dimensional offense, I think Indy will be able to stuff the run, build an early lead and then force the Steelers to the air for the rest of the game. The Colts were 7-1 this season at home, and with the advantage of home field + the week off, I think they roll easily.
Prediction: Colts 28, Steelers 17. Indy opens 21-7 but then lets the Steelers back in a little late. Predicted to finish under.
Carolina Panthers (+2.5) at Chicago Bears (O/U: 30)
This should be the best game of the weekend. #2 defense (Chicago) against #3 defense in Carolina. Strong rushing attack in Chicago against the NFL's 4th ranked rush defense. Strong passing threat in standout Carolina WR Steve Smith, against the fearsome Chicago pass defense (#5 in the NFL). The triumphant return of Bears QB Rex Grossman versus the playoff-tested Jake Delhomme. Freezing temperatures and the wind off Lake Michigan versus the warm-weather Panthers.
The money has been hammering down on Carolina this week, driving the line down from the open of Carolina +3 to the current Carolina +2.5 in most places. The under has also been bet down, it opened at a ridiculously low 31 and then got dropped down another point by the heavy action.
The Panthers are playing very well lately, are playoff tested (they were in the Superbowl only two years ago after all) and play very well on the road. But Carolina's recent success has come on the strength of establishing the run, and they're not going to be able to establish the run against the tenacious Chicago defense. In the last meeting in Chicago, the Panthers were held to just 55 yards on the ground and lost 13-3. When the Bears shut down the Carolina running game, they were able to relentlessly blitz Delhomme, and sacked him eight times in the game. Chicago will come out and look to do the exact same thing here: they can create pressure with only four and five pass rushers and will be able to drop the rest back in coverage. I suggest putting all four d-backs on Steve Smith and letting Urlacher cover the rest of the field.
I think this line is pretty aptly set: my system strongly predicts Chicago -3 in this game, and with the line getting hammered down to Chicago -2.5 I think its a valuable play. If you're already on Carolina +3 I don't think you're in bad shape, and some people were able to secure (or buy up to) Carolina +3.5 which I think has good value as well. This is also a public perception play: the game is 63%-37% on Wagerline and significantly one-sided on Carolina on Sportsbook.com. Ultimately though, with Carolina's edge in forcing turnovers and the inexperienced QB factor of Grossman, I can't recommend this as a very strong play.
Prediction: Chicago 17, Carolina 14.
Tease of the Week: Seattle -2.5 Under 48
Requires laying the larger juice for the seven-point teaser, but moving this game inside the three and under 48 is a great place to be, in my opinion. Expected rain and winds should keep the total down, and Seattle by a fieldgoal is a close to a "lock" as you can get in my opinion.
Plays for the week, for the record:
Seattle -9.5 (-110) : half unit
Denver -3 (-112) : five units (game of the week)
Colts -10 (+105) : half unit
Bears -2.5 (-110 : two units
Tease: Seattle -2.5 Under 48 : 3 units risked to win 2.5 units
Tease: Chicago +4 Seattle -2.5 : to win three units