NFL SB winner bet [Archive] - Two Plus Two Newer Archives

Punker

01-12-2006, 09:44 PM

He gets Indy

I get Denver, Seattle, Chicago.

$200 if you get the SB winner, no action if a team other than these four wins. Good bet for me or for him, or fair?

Waterproof

01-12-2006, 09:54 PM

The Colts are even money to win it all.
good bet for him.

BobJoeJim

01-13-2006, 03:57 AM

Based off of the listed lines, good bet for him. I would take your side in a heartbeat, though; I think the lines are broken, and Indy is getting way too much credit.

The math, based on lines from Bodog:
Denver is 7/1, meaning a 12.5% chance of a win makes the bet break even.
Seattle is 13/2, or 13.3%
Chicago is 15/2, or 11.8%
Your side therefore has a combined 37.6% chance
Meanwhile Indy pays 5/4, for a 44.4% chance.

The edge according to Bodog (and other sites will agree) goes to your friend, but since I think Indy is overrated, and have units on Seattle to win the Super Bowl, and Denver to win the AFC, I like your side. You have to be convinved that the lines are wrong to take it, though.

vilemerchant

01-13-2006, 04:01 AM

I think it's a good bet for you. Even if Indy are a true even money proposition right now things can change pretty quickly with injuries to key players and other factors, something you should be somewhat protected from with 3 teams on your side.

bugstud

01-13-2006, 06:03 AM

I would have asked for another nfc team, probably wash. I still like your side tho.

PropPlayer

01-13-2006, 06:19 AM

At Pinnacle you can bet no on Indy winning the Super Bowl at -113. I would rather pick up the remaining 4 teams and lay the 13pt juice if I was big on Indy not winning.

MCS

01-13-2006, 04:24 PM

Good for him. It would be fair if you got the entire field.

MCS

01-13-2006, 04:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Even if Indy are a true even money proposition right now things can change pretty quickly with injuries to key players and other factors, something you should be somewhat protected from with 3 teams on your side.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no sense. The possibility of injuries has already been factored into the line for each team. The line isn't "Indianapolis +100 unless they sustain an injury."

PropPlayer

01-13-2006, 04:56 PM

LOL! Yesterday I needed a line like "Spurs -4.5 -102 Unless they go down by 12+ in the first quarter". To bad I couldn't find that one even though I shopped it a ton.