DE LA HOYA v. MAYORGA 6/6/06

[Packard]

O De La Hoya -286
R Mayorga +220

I believe this line to be incorrect. Mayorga is much tougher and more intense. De La Hoya is still very popular which might account for this large and (undeserved) line.

The only thing I am worried about is the scoring if it goes the distance. Oscar is most likely the judge's favorite already.

I am going with Mayorga to win /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Packard]

Sorry for the typo. I meant the fight is May 6. Next weekend of course.

[ravensfan]

I agree, and raise you a Mayorga by KO.
Out of the times mayorga wins this fight, i don't think half of them are by decision... Oscar was tough to KO, but it's not the 90s and Mayorga punches HARD.
Might also take Oscar to win by decision as a reverse-middle/hedge

[Tuds75]

Here is a good reason to take Mayorga in this fight:

http://images.amazon.com/images/P/B000CRSBLQ.01-A1NDBS7YGOPBD6._SCLZZZZZZZ_V56124551_.jpg

EAsports Cover Jinx is real.
RJJ on Fight Night 1 = First Lose and then KO'ed again
Hopkins on FN r2 = 13 yr unbeaten streak over and then another loss.


Tuds

[JohnnyHumongous]

[ QUOTE ]
Here is a good reason to take Mayorga in this fight:

http://images.amazon.com/images/P/B000CRSBLQ.01-A1NDBS7YGOPBD6._SCLZZZZZZZ_V56124551_.jpg

EAsports Cover Jinx is real.
RJJ on Fight Night 1 = First Lose and then KO'ed again
Hopkins on FN r2 = 13 yr unbeaten streak over and then another loss.


Tuds

[/ QUOTE ]

small sample size.

[Tuds75]

The EAsports Cover Jinx is 2 for 2 in Boxing cover. Not to mention all the Madden Cover Jinxs. Go ahead and bet on Oscar, but there are some crazy mojo involved with EAsports cover.

Tuds

[greg44]

The Line at Pinny is +260... How much higher do you think it'll go?

[Packard]

That +260 is a good line. My original post was the odds from canbet on 4/30.

I think some De La Hoya supporters will keep betting on Oscar this week.

[greg44]

Alright, it went back down to +245 over the night. I'll wait one more day and see how the line goes because I think the the public will start betting on de la hoya as well.

[miami32]

Ok I know nothing about boxing, but a friend of mine has told me that Mayorga is much better then 5 to 1 to KO or TKO or win by DQ against Oscar is this true? How can this line be? Why is it so large?

[ThaHero]

It is so large because Oscar is a very popular fighter.

Mayorga has the tendency to fight like an idiot, i.e. letting Trinidad, who has great power, hit him. But I dont think Oscar has the power to KO him like Felix. With the EA cover jinx and Mayorga's awkward style, I take Mayorga at anywhere above +200. I think he has a very good chance to win this fight, probably by KO.

[tortman]

No KO/TKO for Mayorga. Last time he did this was in his first Forrest fight in Jan 2003. Since then (5 fights), he's lost 2 and won 3 by decision. Oscar is a smart fighter and will not let Mayorga power punch him.

Since no KO and since I dont see Mayorga winning by decision, it's Oscar's fight, though I'm not sure I like him at -300 as I've seen in some places.

[Indiana]

Both of these fighters suck. They have both always sucked. Mayorga luckboxes and catches Forrest. De La Hoya couldn't even beat Sugar Shane (who is a big fish himself). I won't even be watching this stupid [censored]. These fighters should have more dignity than to fight these fights. And God dammit, Pretty Boy Floyd needs to cut the [censored] bull [censored] and fight Hatton. Nobody wants to see him fight these BS fights.

Outraged,

Indy

[Tuds75]

Indy you need to settle down man. Who chit in your ceral this morning? You seem like you are upset at Oscar, Mayorga, and PBF like all 3 scamed you outta your live savings. I agree with you on Oscar. He is a pretty boy who a businessman who only seems to box for the money. I watched the HBO hype-show for the fight and it seemed like every time they showed Oscar training, he had makeup, his hair done up or the action was staged. His mind is elsewhere and it will always be, in regards to fighting.

Mayorga is not as bad as you make him out to be, but he is not as good as Don King makes him out to be. He did go 12 rounds and beat Forrest at his own game after the upset. You have to give him his props for that. Mayorga is a B+ fighter talent-wise and a A fighter in terms of charisma.

Then again the reports out of Vegas is that Mayorga is threatening to back out of the fight because he wants 8 million instead of the 2 that he signed for. Oscar's camp is not scared, but Mayorga might be crazy enough to ruin his career like that. Well will have to wait and see.

Tuds

[ThaHero]

I wont be bettin on this fight personally but if I was I would be taking the EA Cover Jinx.

[Tuds75]

I saw sportsbook.com will have "in-running" betting on the Mayorga/Oscar fight tonight. I don't understand what this is all about. Will the lines be changing as the fight goes on? If that is what happens I will save my money after Mayorga wins 2 or 3 of the first 3 rounds and Oscar's odds drop to something like -150 and then POUNCE on him.

Just looking for some clarification on this "in-running betting"

Tuds

[Performify]

I've placed the following hedge based on the currently available lines.

Mayorga to win +241: 3 units to win 7.23 units
Mayorga by decision +780: 1 unit to win 7.80 units
Oscar by decision +160: 4 units to win 6.40 units

This puts the following hedge scenarios together:

Mayorga wins by stoppage: hedge win, +2.23 units
Mayorga wins by decision: big win, +11.03 units
Oscar wins by decision: hedge win +2.4 units
Oscar wins by stoppage: lose, -8 units

[Hoya]

Mayorga is probably the worst defensive fighter in the sport right now (outside of heavies) that regularly gets big fights. Oscar is a bit washed up but I still think he takes an easy decision.

[Tuds75]

Good looking hedge Performity, but I have some bad/scary news for ya, Jay Nady is reffing the fight. This guy is notorious for stopping fights early (and I am not even figuring his Judah/Tszyu stoppage). I have seen Nady ref many fights and he is get very worrisome once a fighter starts to take punches without a return (notice how I said "punches" and not punishment since just landing punches can be decieving). I am just throwing this out there. I still think Oscar wins a UD because it took him 11 rounds to finally KO Vargas and Mayorga has a MUCH better chin then Mayorga. I see Mayorga fighting Oscar similar to how Vargas fought Oscar. Trying to bully Oscar around by pushing and wrestling him, but Oscar will take the roughhousing to look for his openings and score with good clean shots. I also expect Oscar to break down Mayorga in the final 4 rounds of the fight after a close first 8 rounds. From then Oscar will show the different level between fighters.

Tuds

[Hoya]

I'm worried already about my bet for DLH by decision - he is destroying Mayorga

[Tuds75]

Oscar TKO in the 6th. Oscar completly owns Mayorga knocking him down in the first and uses Mayorga as a punching bag for another 4 rounds before he knocks Mayorga down again in the 6th.

Imagine Gatti/Mayweather all over again. Total Domination by a better class of fighter.

Tuds

[djoyce003]

Mayorga looked to me like a punch drunk fighter. I think the last few fights (particularly the Trinidad fight) have jacked him up. People in the know probably set the lines according to this. Mayorga should not be fighting. Punches he normally used to take put him on the canvas, and he looked lost most of the night.

This really reminded me of the guy that fought Julio Cesar Chavez and had the fight stolen from him with the stoppage in like the last 5 seconds of the last round. (Can't remember his name). In the rematch he just got destroyed. Mayorga reminded me exactly of this.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
This really reminded me of the guy that fought Julio Cesar Chavez and had the fight stolen from him with the stoppage in like the last 5 seconds of the last round. (Can't remember his name). In the rematch he just got destroyed. Mayorga reminded me exactly of this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meldrick Taylor

[Miles Ahead]

[ QUOTE ]
Mayorga looked to me like a punch drunk fighter. I think the last few fights (particularly the Trinidad fight) have jacked him up. People in the know probably set the lines according to this.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, people who follow boxing knew that Mayorga was completely out of his league against De La Hoya and had virtually no chance to win. Mayorga is and has always been a wild brawler and will always lose to an elite fighter like De La Hoya or Trinidad who will step inside of those wide punches and throw short, straight punches in return.

The other thing is Mayorga was a big strong, welterweight, but in the middleweight divisions (154 and 160) he just doesn't carry that power.

The only question was whether De La Hoya would win by KO or decision. My wager was De La Hoya by KO.

[Tuds75]

The real question was how would Oscar handle the 20 month layoff. He all knew he is in a class above Mayorga, but given his large amount of time off and his lackluster effort against Strum and Hopkins, coupled with his mind being on promoting instead of fight, all of these factors is what casted question on Oscar, but now we know..So lets move on

Tuds

[Miles Ahead]

His efforts against Sturm and Hopkins didn't trouble me too much, because they were both at 160. De La Hoya just doesn't have the size to compete at middleweight. I thought he looked very good against Mosley. I was more focused on the fact that Mayorga hadn't had a decent win since the first Forrest fight back in 2002. I thought he lost the rematch with Forrest, he lost to Spinks and he got destroyed by Trinidad. In between he beat a couple of unknowns that were nothing to write home about.

Anyway, didn't mean to beat a dead horse. I just stumbled upon the thread as I was looking to see what if anything people were saying here about some upcoming bouts: Montiel v. Gonzalez (I haven't found a line online), Castillo v. Corrales, Tarver v. Hopkins, Cotto v. Malignaggi and Taylor v. Wright.

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
The only question was whether De La Hoya would win by KO or decision. My wager was De La Hoya by KO.

[/ QUOTE ]

really impressive.

By the way, bet your house on the Chicago White Sox to win the 2005 World Series. Its a lock.

[Miles Ahead]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The only question was whether De La Hoya would win by KO or decision. My wager was De La Hoya by KO.

[/ QUOTE ]

really impressive.

By the way, bet your house on the Chicago White Sox to win the 2005 World Series. Its a lock.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. If you were talking to be people who following the sport closely, you would have wagered DLH to win. Maybe 1 out of 10 people I talked to seriously thought Mayorga had a chance. I made a straight bet on DLH to win when I thought the line was about as good as it was going to get and then put a small amout on the prop bet for a DLH KO.

I made the same bets on Hatton/Collazo (for Hatton) and obviously lost the prop bet. I overestimated Hatton's strength at welterweight. Size does matter in boxing.

You win some, you lose some.

I don't bet on baseball, but that sounds like a terrible wager. I know: sarcasm.